Can a Budget produce the boost the Tories need?

George Osborne was under pressure to deliver a game-changing Budget that would give the Tories a much-needed boost in the polls. But can a Budget really deliver that sort of impact? History suggests the answer is No.

According to the analyst Ian Jones at UK General Election, only two of Osborne’s previous Budgets has had any lasting impact on the opinion polls. He bases this on comparing Budget day opinion polls down the years with where they were a month later.

One was the notorious ‘omnishambles’ Budget of 2012 with its unpalatable taxes on charities, caravans and Cornish pasties: it caused the Labour lead over the Conservatives to jump from one to seven per cent. And it’s taken the Tories ever since to get back on terms. (Actually today’s YouGov poll shows Labour one point ahead.)

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The other game-changing Budget of the Osborne era was his very first one in 2010 – and it was the Lib Dems who suffered on that occasion, with polls showing their share of the vote dropping from an election day high of 24 per cent to the mid-teens.

Jones says the 2010 Budget was the first real political event after the general election and may have “crystalised in a lot of people’s minds their attitude towards the coalition, in particular the role of the Liberal Democrats”.

Nick Clegg’s party has been living with the consequences ever since, and most current polls have their share of the national vote down to eight per cent or less.

So, how will the polls look a month from now? By then there will be only three weeks to go, the party leaders’ TV debate will be behind us (it’s planned for 2 April), and the Tories will need to have leapt in the polls if they are to lead the next government.

Current thinking says they need to open up a gap of eight or nine points over Labour to be sure of a Commons majority and not be reliant on the Lib Dems, who are expected to lose at least 30 of their 57 seats.

Only if the Lib Dems do a lot better than the polls suggest can the Tories get away with a lead of one or two per cent and find enough Lib Dem MPs still standing on 8 May to allow Cameron to muster 326 MPs and continue to rule in partnership with Clegg.