EDITOR’S UPDATE at 16.30 Monday: Since this article was posted, the weekly Ashcroft national poll has been released, showing Labour and the Tories level on 33 per cent. Lord Ashcroft writes: “Last week’s Budget appears to have had no overall impact on people’s assessment of whom to trust with the economy.”
George Osborne got the headline he'd been hoping for on Sunday - ‘Budget bounce takes Tories ahead of Labour with three-point poll lead’. The only problem was that no one agreed with The Observer’s verdict.
Yes, their Opinium poll showed the Tories three points up and Labour two points down, giving David Cameron’s party a three-point lead.
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But according to veteran pollster Ben Page of Ipsos Mori, the paper was too quick to draw its “Budget bounce” conclusion: he said he'd want to see all polls moving in the same direction to be sure that the Budget really had improved Tory fortunes.
And sadly for Osborne and the Tories, the three other big polls published over the weekend - all fieldwork conducted after Wednesday’s Budget - suggest the Chancellor's tax and spend package has failed to give the Tories the help they desperately need.
On Friday, Populus gave Labour a three-point lead, with Tory support slipping. Con 31 (down 3), Lab 34 (u/c), Lib Dems 9 (up 1), Ukip 17 (up 2), Greens 5 (u/c).
YouGov's weekly poll for the Sunday Times had Labour ahead by two – again, partly because of Tory slippage. Con 33 (down 2), Lab 35 (up 2), Lib Dems 8 (u/c), Ukip 14 (down 1), Greens 5 (down 1).
The Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday showed the Tories and Labour both gaining a little – but with Miliband’s party still enjoying a four-point lead. Con 30 (up 1), Lab 34 (up 1), Lib Dems 10 (u/c), Ukip (17 down 2), Greens 3 (down 1).
Commenting on the figures, Survation chief executive Damian Lyons Lowe said: "While George Osborne's final Budget of the parliament has a general ‘thumbs up’ based on the detail in today's poll, the Budget does not appear to have moved the Conservative figures much in the direction the party may have hoped.”
Taken together, the polls mean the Tories and Labour are still basically neck-and-neck. That means a swing against the Conservatives of between three and four per cent since the 2010 general election - which could cost them up to 40 seats and make Labour the largest party on 8 May.
Maybe the weeklyAshcroft national poll, due out this afternoon, will have better news for the Conservatives. But if the Budget was a flop, it's hard to see what can produce a game-changer for the Tories now.
Will Cameron regret wriggling out of the TV debate with Ed Miliband? Who knows, it might have been his best chance of delivering a killer blow.