If Britain had PR, Ukip would win 99 seats. Food for thought
Calls for proportional representation will come from all corners on 8 May. But there's a reason to ignore them
It is very likely – make that 100 per cent definite – that there will be calls from across the country for a new system of proportional representation once this election is over.
Lib Dems, Greens and Ukip voters will be asking why they have so few MPs considering their parties’ popular support. Others might be asking why the SNP has so many, considering its voter numbers.
But would PR really be a fairer solution? Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus has been crunching the numbers for the Daily Telegraph to find out.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Using current predications of the expected vote share on 7 May, PR would deliver Ukip 99 seats, the Lib Dems 49, and the Greens 37 – many, many more than they can dare hope for under the current first-past-the-post system.
Labour would be down to 213, the Tories down to 201 and the SNP on 23 rather than the 50-plus currently predicted by pollsters.
Here comes the big BUT…
To reach the magic figure of 326 MPs needed for a Commons majority, no two parties’ MPs added together (excepting a highly unlikely ‘grand coalition’ of Labour and the Tories) would come anywhere near.
“Any coalition would have to be an unwieldy three, four, or even six- party affair,” says Baxter. “It would be a recipe for fractious and fractured government.”
Before we junk the current system due to a single “unfair” election result, Baxter urges us to consider this: the average vote share for the three major parties over the 29 general elections since the year 1900 has been 44 per cent for the Conservatives, 33 per cent for Labour, and 19 per cent for the Liberals.
Compare this with the amount of “governing time” the three parties have enjoyed (counting coalitions as ‘half-government’) over the same period: Conservatives 54 per cent, Labour 29 per cent and Liberals 12 per cent.
“Now those are not quite exact matches,” Baxter admits, “but it is not an appalling outcome that flies in the face of democracy… When the losers clamour for change after the May election, we should resist their calls to chase the illusion of perfectability.”
Whether this cuts any ice with the pro-PR brigade remains to be seen - there could be some very angry voters around on 8 May. For instance, according to opinion polls, Ukip currently enjoy a 12-14 per cent share of the nation vote. But under the first-past-the-post system, the Faragists are predicted to win only one or two seats. Not 99.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Why more men are wearing jewellery
The Week Recommends Pop culture is boosting interest in earrings and necklaces, alongside classic tie pins and lapel pins
By Adrienne Wyper, The Week UK Published
-
7 magnificent hotels to visit before the summer crowds descend
The Week Recommends Have beach time in the Dominican Republic or a spa day in Saint-Tropez
By Catherine Garcia, The Week US Published
-
The Week contest: Sheep spray
Puzzles and Quizzes
By The Week US Published
-
How will honeytrap scandal change Westminster?
Today's Big Question Security procedures laid bare by spear phishing attack as focus shifts to 'political insider' being responsible
By The Week UK Published
-
Will Aukus pact survive a second Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question US, UK and Australia seek to expand 'game-changer' defence partnership ahead of Republican's possible return to White House
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Can Boris Johnson save Rishi Sunak?
Today's Big Question Former PM could 'make the difference' between losing the next election and annihilation
By The Week UK Published
-
Liz Truss and her bid to woo the American far-right
Why Everyone's Talking About Former PM pitching herself as 'bridge in transatlantic conservative movement'
By The Week UK Published
-
It's the economy, Sunak: has 'Rishession' halted Tory fightback?
Today's Big Question PM's pledge to deliver economic growth is 'in tatters' as stagnation and falling living standards threaten Tory election wipeout
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Why your local council may be going bust
The Explainer Across England, local councils are suffering from grave financial problems
By The Week UK Published
-
Rishi Sunak and the right-wing press: heading for divorce?
Talking Point The Telegraph launches 'assault' on PM just as many Tory MPs are contemplating losing their seats
By Keumars Afifi-Sabet, The Week UK Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published