Labour take lead in YouGov poll as battle commences
It’s billed as the tightest election for 40 years – yet only a fraction of MPs need fear losing their seats

A free daily digest of the biggest news stories of the day - and the best features from our website
Thank you for signing up to TheWeek. You will receive a verification email shortly.
There was a problem. Please refresh the page and try again.
The political frontline is moving from the Palace of Westminster to Britain’s doorsteps for the final six-week stage of the election campaign. Today Parliament is ‘prorogued’ and on Monday it will be dissolved, at which point MPs will effectively cease to exist: they even have to remove the title ‘MP’ from their websites.
This is being billed as the closest general election for 40 years, with current polling still showing the Tories and Labour neck-and-neck. Today’s YouGov poll gives Labour a one-point advantage: Con 34 (down 1), Lab 35 (u/c) , Lib Dems 8 (u/c), Ukip 12 (u/c), Greens 6 (u/c).
Yet the vast majority of MPs packing their bags at Westminster have little to fear. Of the 650 sitting MPs, more than 500 are holders of safe seats and can bank on being re-elected.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Eighty-six know they won’t be coming back – because they’ve had enough and are standing down. Some of them sat in safe seats, some are quitting marginals, leaving the dirty work to their successors.
In only 140 or so seats are the fates of the candidates at the mercy of the electors. They are the key marginals where a swing of only a few percentage points can cost a sitting MP his or her job.
If you want to know whether you have an MP you and a few friends could turf out by voting tactically, go to this list helpfully provided by Lord Ashcroft.
The list is made up of two Welsh, 23 Scottish and 121 English constituencies – and it is the fate of the latter which will determine who will be the leader of the biggest party in the Commons, David Cameron or Ed Miliband.
Every national and local poll carried out in the past four years shows a swing away from Cameron’s party. In 2010, the Tories outscored Labour by seven points – 37 per cent to 30 per cent. Current polling averages show the two parties neck-and-neck on 33 or 34 per cent - which means there’s been a swing to Labour of three or four per cent.
That’s enough to make 40 or 50 Conservative-held seats in England targets for Labour - and it’s in these consituencies that the Cameron-Miliband battle for ascendancy will be fought most keenly.
Ten of Labour’s targets are in London, ten in the Midlands, nine in the Northwest, five in the West Yorkshire, four in East Sussex and three in Norfolk, according to a list compiled by Ian Jones at UK General Election.
A second battleground is the Southwest where up to a dozen Lib Dem seats are under threat from the Tories. Labour has a similar number of Lib Dem targets but these are more scattered.
As for Scotland, well it’s just a matter of waiting to see how well the SNP can do. Current polling suggests they will take almost all of Labour’s 41 Scottish seats and most of the Lib Dems’ 11 seats.
It’s worth noting that while the SNP surge hurts Miliband, it doesn’t directly help Cameron. While the Nationalists will reduce Miliband’s chance of an overall majority, they are likely to “give back” by giving tacit support to a minority Labour government.
If you’d like to know whether your current MP is giving up and moving on, see here. The list includes many names known beyond their own households: Gordon Brown, Glenda Jackson, Hazel Blears, Ming Campbell, Alistair Darling, Peter Hain, Malcolm Rifkind, Jack Straw and David 'Two Brains' Willetts.
Continue reading for free
We hope you're enjoying The Week's refreshingly open-minded journalism.
Subscribed to The Week? Register your account with the same email as your subscription.
Sign up to our 10 Things You Need to Know Today newsletter
A free daily digest of the biggest news stories of the day - and the best features from our website
-
5 tips to save on heating bills
The Explainer Follow these expert recommendations for a cozy and cheap winter
By Becca Stanek Published
-
Should you fire your financial adviser? 4 signs it's time to say goodbye.
The Explainer Breakups are never fun, but you have to protect your wallet
By Becca Stanek Published
-
The daily gossip: Man arrested in connection with shooting of Tupac Shakur, an OceanGate movie is in the works, and more
Feature The daily gossip: September 29, 2023
By Brendan Morrow Published
-
Why is the UK pushing Germany on fighter jets for Saudi Arabia?
Today's big question Berlin has opposed the sale of weapons to Riyadh on humanitarian grounds
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
Is it time the world re-evaluated the rules on migration?
Today's Big Question Home Secretary Suella Braverman questions whether 1951 UN Refugee Convention is 'fit for our modern age'
By The Week Staff Published
-
Rishi Sunak's tree code: what is the PM's election strategy?
Today's Big Question Conservative leader lining up major policy announcements in bid to rebrand as 'change' candidate
By Elliott Goat Published
-
Will Rishi Sunak's green wedge issue win over the public?
Today's Big Question The PM draws dividing line with Labour on net zero ahead of the next general election
By Sorcha Bradley Published
-
Industry backlash as Sunak set to water down green pledges
Speed Read Automotive and energy bosses look for clarity after PM backs away from UK net zero goal
By Arion McNicoll Published
-
October by-elections: what's at stake for Labour, Lib Dems and Tories
Parties will contest two former safe Tory seats on 19 October, putting pressure on Rishi Sunak
By Harriet Marsden Published
-
Jobs for the boys: does the UK need a minister for men?
Conservative MP calls for dedicated cabinet role to combat 'crisis' in men's mental health and education
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The new Windsor framework: Rishi Sunak’s Brexit deal explained in five points
feature PM reaches agreement with EU over new Northern Ireland trading arrangements
By Sorcha Bradley Last updated