Labour take lead in YouGov poll as battle commences
It’s billed as the tightest election for 40 years – yet only a fraction of MPs need fear losing their seats
The political frontline is moving from the Palace of Westminster to Britain’s doorsteps for the final six-week stage of the election campaign. Today Parliament is ‘prorogued’ and on Monday it will be dissolved, at which point MPs will effectively cease to exist: they even have to remove the title ‘MP’ from their websites.
This is being billed as the closest general election for 40 years, with current polling still showing the Tories and Labour neck-and-neck. Today’s YouGov poll gives Labour a one-point advantage: Con 34 (down 1), Lab 35 (u/c) , Lib Dems 8 (u/c), Ukip 12 (u/c), Greens 6 (u/c).
Yet the vast majority of MPs packing their bags at Westminster have little to fear. Of the 650 sitting MPs, more than 500 are holders of safe seats and can bank on being re-elected.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Eighty-six know they won’t be coming back – because they’ve had enough and are standing down. Some of them sat in safe seats, some are quitting marginals, leaving the dirty work to their successors.
In only 140 or so seats are the fates of the candidates at the mercy of the electors. They are the key marginals where a swing of only a few percentage points can cost a sitting MP his or her job.
If you want to know whether you have an MP you and a few friends could turf out by voting tactically, go to this list helpfully provided by Lord Ashcroft.
The list is made up of two Welsh, 23 Scottish and 121 English constituencies – and it is the fate of the latter which will determine who will be the leader of the biggest party in the Commons, David Cameron or Ed Miliband.
Every national and local poll carried out in the past four years shows a swing away from Cameron’s party. In 2010, the Tories outscored Labour by seven points – 37 per cent to 30 per cent. Current polling averages show the two parties neck-and-neck on 33 or 34 per cent - which means there’s been a swing to Labour of three or four per cent.
That’s enough to make 40 or 50 Conservative-held seats in England targets for Labour - and it’s in these consituencies that the Cameron-Miliband battle for ascendancy will be fought most keenly.
Ten of Labour’s targets are in London, ten in the Midlands, nine in the Northwest, five in the West Yorkshire, four in East Sussex and three in Norfolk, according to a list compiled by Ian Jones at UK General Election.
A second battleground is the Southwest where up to a dozen Lib Dem seats are under threat from the Tories. Labour has a similar number of Lib Dem targets but these are more scattered.
As for Scotland, well it’s just a matter of waiting to see how well the SNP can do. Current polling suggests they will take almost all of Labour’s 41 Scottish seats and most of the Lib Dems’ 11 seats.
It’s worth noting that while the SNP surge hurts Miliband, it doesn’t directly help Cameron. While the Nationalists will reduce Miliband’s chance of an overall majority, they are likely to “give back” by giving tacit support to a minority Labour government.
If you’d like to know whether your current MP is giving up and moving on, see here. The list includes many names known beyond their own households: Gordon Brown, Glenda Jackson, Hazel Blears, Ming Campbell, Alistair Darling, Peter Hain, Malcolm Rifkind, Jack Straw and David 'Two Brains' Willetts.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
'Election Day. Finally.'
Today's Newspapers A roundup of the headlines from the US front pages
By The Week Staff Published
-
Incendiary device plot: Russia's 'rehearsals' for attacks on transatlantic flights
The Explainer Security officials warn of widespread Moscow-backed 'sabotage campaign' in retaliation for continued Western support for Ukraine
By The Week UK Published
-
Outer Hebrides: a top travel destination
The Week Recommends Discover 'unspoiled beauty' of the Western Isles
By Tess Foley-Cox Published
-
What is the next Tory leader up against?
Today's Big Question Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will have to unify warring factions and win back disillusioned voters – without alienating the centre ground
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is Lammy hoping to achieve in China?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary heads to Beijing as Labour seeks cooperation on global challenges and courts opportunities for trade and investment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Britain about to 'boil over'?
Today's Big Question A message shared across far-right groups listed more than 30 potential targets for violence in the UK today
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
UK's Starmer slams 'far-right thuggery' at riots
Speed Read The anti-immigrant violence was spurred by false rumors that the suspect in the Southport knife attack was an immigrant
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The Tamils stranded on 'secretive' British island in Indian Ocean
Under the Radar Migrants 'unlawfully detained' since 2021 shipwreck on UK-controlled Diego Garcia, site of important US military base
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Britain's Labour Party wins in a landslide
Speed Read The Conservatives were unseated after 14 years of rule
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Will voter apathy and low turnout blight the election?
Today's Big Question Belief that result is 'foregone conclusion', or that politicians can't be trusted, could exacerbate long-term turnout decline
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published