Labour emerge from Easter with a narrow leads in two polls, while the veteran forecaster Martin Baxter warns the Tories they are running out time. “Less and less likely that the Conservatives will be in government after May 7,” he tells readers of his Daily Telegraph column.
His analysis is based on the latest Electoral Calculus poll of polls which has the Conservatives tied with Labour on 33 per cent.
Baxter says Tory strategists have been hoping for the pro-government swing that normally happens in the run-up to a general election. Yet, despite the Budget and other opportunities, it has noit materialised. “They have been patiently waiting for the last year, without much success,” says Baxter.
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And he reminds us that the Tories need a lead of six per cent over Labour just to continue in coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Level pegging on 33 per cent “would translate into a Labour/SNP alliance at Westminster with Ed Miliband as Prime Minister”.
Meanwhile, two new polls from YouGov and Populus show the Tories going in the wrong direction, slipping two points behind Labour.
YouGov: Con 33 (down 1), Lab 35 (up 2), Lib Dems 8 (down 2), Ukip 14 (up 1), Greens 5 (up 1).
Populus: Con 31 (down 1), Lab 33 (down 1), Lib Dems 10 (up 1), Ukip 15 (u/c), Greens 4 (down 1).
