Tories have left it too late, Ashcroft warns Cameron
As YouGov shows Labour ahead, Tories need to fix in 24 days what they haven’t in five years. Tricky
The former Tory party treasurer turned pollster Lord Ashcroft has a chilling message for David Cameron: nothing is going to change between now and 7 May to bring him the extra support he needs to stay in power.
Drawing on evidence from focus groups, he says parties can’t change in four weeks what they failed to fix over the past five years.
“My focus groups with undecided voters have shown little of substance is getting through to most people but what they do hear reinforces what they already think about the parties – good and bad,” he says.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Grist to the Ashcroft argument are the latest polls. Team Cameron might have been encouraged to see the weekly Opinium poll in The Observer give them a three-point jump to put them ahead of Labour by two points (36 to 34) – possibly thanks to a Ukip fall of three points.
But then look at YouGov, who poll daily. In their Sunday Times poll, the Tories were neck and neck with Labour after gaining a point while Labour lost one.
Yet today, in their poll for The Sun, YouGov have Labour back in the lead by three points: Con 33 (down 1), Lab 36 (up 2), Lib Dems 7 (u/c), Ukip 13 (u/c), Greens 5 (down 1).
In short, it’s still neck-and-neck and Ashcroft’s point that nothing’s “getting through” appears well founded.
There’s support for Ashcroft’s view from academic Dr Stephen Fisher. He has looked at all 17 post-war general elections to see what happened in the last 25 days of each campaign. His verdict: “Governments are much more likely to lose ground” than increase their support in the final phase of the campaign.
Another dent in Tory optimism comes from YouGov’s Peter Kellner, one of the most steadfast believers in David Cameron’s survival.
He has been constantly predicting a Tory victory since 2013. But he has finally revised his forecast, saying for the first time that the Tory vote plus the Lib Dem vote won’t give the current coalition a majority on 7 May.
He says the Tories have failed to achieve “crossover” – a consistent lead in the polls “which they had hoped to secure by Easter week”.
Kellner also notes that Labour have made no progress in rolling back the Nationalist surge in Scotland. And Lord Ashcroft’s “no change” dictum applies equally to Labour: they too have longstanding strengths and weaknesses.
There are, however, two crucial differences between Labour and the Tories. Labour gather their votes more efficiently – doing better in key marginals and piling up fewer large majorities in safe seats. That means they are likely to win more seats if they are on level-pegging with the Tories.
Ed Miliband also has better prospects for support in a hung parliament - however uninviting he might find the prospect of having to rely on the Scottish Nationalists.
So it is Cameron not Miliband who needs the game-changer. And Lord Ashcroft says it won’t come.
He argues that in order to win, the Tories needed to get rid of factors that were putting people off voting for them. Yet they score no better now issues such as the NHS than they did at the last election.
“If too many voters see the Tories as the nasty party," he concludes, "they seem unlikely to win anybody over by ramping up the attacks on Miliband.”
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Outer Hebrides: a top travel destination
The Week Recommends Discover 'unspoiled beauty' of the Western Isles
By Tess Foley-Cox Published
-
The Biltmore Mayfair review: a quintessential slice of luxury London
The Week Recommends This swanky retreat in Grosvenor Square blends old-world glamour with modern comforts
By Caroline Dolby Published
-
Is ChatGPT's new search engine OpenAI's Google 'killer'?
Talking Point There's a new AI-backed search engine in town. But can it stand up to Google's decades-long hold on internet searches?
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
What is the next Tory leader up against?
Today's Big Question Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick will have to unify warring factions and win back disillusioned voters – without alienating the centre ground
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
What is Lammy hoping to achieve in China?
Today's Big Question Foreign secretary heads to Beijing as Labour seeks cooperation on global challenges and courts opportunities for trade and investment
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Britain about to 'boil over'?
Today's Big Question A message shared across far-right groups listed more than 30 potential targets for violence in the UK today
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
UK's Starmer slams 'far-right thuggery' at riots
Speed Read The anti-immigrant violence was spurred by false rumors that the suspect in the Southport knife attack was an immigrant
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The Tamils stranded on 'secretive' British island in Indian Ocean
Under the Radar Migrants 'unlawfully detained' since 2021 shipwreck on UK-controlled Diego Garcia, site of important US military base
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
David Cameron resigns as Sunak names shadow cabinet
Speed Read New foreign secretary joins 12 shadow ministers brought in to fill vacancies after electoral decimation
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
Britain's Labour Party wins in a landslide
Speed Read The Conservatives were unseated after 14 years of rule
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published