Voters who backed the Lib Dems in the 2010 general election will play a key role in the Tory-Labour battleground seats – and there are plenty who still haven’t decided how to vote this time.
That’s the conclusion of Political Betting’s Mike Smithson from an analysis of Lord Ashcroft’s 20 most recent marginal polls.
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For some, the five new pledges contained in today's Lib Dem manifesto launch are virtually meaningless given that broken promise, even if Clegg swears they have "near religious status" in the event of coalition talks.
But it’s a mistake to lump all the 2010 Lib Dem departees together, says Smithson. “Some are simply returners to the red fold after being turned off by things like Iraq, some are converts and some are straightforward tactical voters who want to stop the Tories in their constituencies.”
He says in some marginal seats up to a quarter of 2010 Lib Dem supporters have yet to make up their minds. “They could be decisive.”
Labour have moved up a point in the latest YouGov daily poll for The Sun: Con 33 (unchanged), Lab 35 (up 1), Lib Dems 8 (u/c), Ukip 13 (u/c), Greens 5 (down 1).
Meanwhile, pollster Lord Ashcroft has taken to Twitter with what is clearly his comment on the Tories’ decision to allow personal attacks on Ed Miliband.
Ashcroft recalls a quote from Margaret Thatcher who once said that “wounding” personal attacks always cheered her up because “it means they have not a single argument left”.
Asked if David Cameron follows him on Twitter, Ashcroft replied: “He perhaps should”.