Five unexpected consequences of climate change for the UK

Threats to the UK from heat, mosquitoes, flooding and food security will become "more significant in the near future" as a result of climate change, landmark analysis from more than 90 experts has warned.

The UK Health Security Agency’s (UKHSA) report on the effects of climate change in the UK is the first of its kind since 2012 and "paints a stark picture of a future in which heat and cold-related deaths soar and new mosquito species invade our shores carrying deadly viruses", warned the Daily Express.

Heat-related deaths are estimated to increase by one and a half times in the 2030s and by 12 times by 2070, but the knock-on effects of climate change in the UK could impact all aspects of daily life: from worsening health inequality to limiting the supply of essential foodstuffs and even increasing the number of car accidents a year.

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Mosquitoes

In a plausible worst-case scenario where global temperatures rise by 4C, climate modelling suggests the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, which can transmit dengue fever, chikungunya virus and Zika virus, "has the potential to become established" in most of England by the 2040s and 2050s. It could then move into Wales and parts of the Scottish Lowlands by the end of the century, the UKHSA report warned.

Under this scenario, tropical diseases such as the "horrifying 'bone-breaker'" dengue fever could become "endemic" in Britain, said the Express, with mosquitoes already responsible for cases of dengue in France and chikungunya virus in Italy in recent years, the BBC reported.

Health inequality

The health inequalities between different ethnicities, neighbourhoods and social classes are "already stark", said The Guardian. Millions of women in the most deprived areas in England die almost eight years earlier than those from wealthier areas. The UKHSA report found "these disparities will worsen as the impact the climate crisis has on health is disproportionately negative to the most disadvantaged groups".

Most vulnerable are people living with disabilities, those in areas of high deprivation and homeless people. Professor Lea Berrang Ford, head of the Centre for Climate and Health Security at the UKHSA, said: "The distribution of the impacts of climate change do not just differ across geographic regions, but also across different socio-demographic groups."

Migration

"Climate displacement is adding to a massive migration already underway to the world's cities", said Wired, "and it is becoming a critical issue globally."

The World Bank has estimated that “as many as 216 million people could move within their own countries due to slow-onset climate change impacts by 2050”, with 86 million predicted to be displaced in sub-Saharan Africa alone.

"The poverty and instability that climate change provokes in developing countries will further mass migration into Europe and to the shores of the English Channel," said Geostrategy, "exacerbating our existing difficulties in stopping illegal crossings."

Tea, rice and bananas

British households are already facing an additional cost of £605 for food due to climate change impacts and soaring oil, gas and fertiliser prices in 2022 and 2023, recent ECIU analysis calculated.

Based on the government's own trade data, the report highlighted the risk to UK imports of essential foodstuffs including rice, tea, coffee, sugar and bananas, which are predominantly sourced from countries affected by escalating droughts and floods.

In Pakistan, the second biggest source of UK rice imports, yields fell by up to 20% in the aftermath of devastating floods in 2022, while tea plantations in Kenya are shrinking due to prolonged hot spells and erratic rainfall. Meanwhile, Vietnam's coffee production is facing "the dual brunt of extreme storms and deteriorating bean quality amid prolonged heatwaves", the climate news site Edie reported.

Car accidents

Studies have found a correlation between increased temperatures and fatal car accidents. According to Scientific American, over the last decade researchers in countries such as the US, China, Spain, France and Iran have investigated how temperature affects car crashes "and found the same trend: hot weather increases the risk of a lethal wreck".

"Exposure to extreme heat disrupts the body and brain with severe and sometimes even deadly consequences," said the magazine. 

Hot weather makes drivers "fatigued", said Reader's Digest. "As heatwaves are expected to increase in frequency and severity in the UK, car crashes may, unfortunately, become more frequent over the coming years."