This Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above average

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year, spanning from June 1 to Nov. 30. A variety of environmental conditions have increased the chances of strong storms, and damages are only expected to worsen as agencies like the Federal Emergency Management Agency and NOAA are defunded by the Trump administration.

A stormy season

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to have between 13 and 19 named storms. Among these could be three to five major hurricanes that are Category 3 or higher. The season usually peaks in September. "Some experts are concerned that the current setup may resemble something closer to the 2017 season, the year of hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria," said The New York Times, when the storms reached the upper limit of their forecast. "This outlook is a call to action: be prepared," NOAA's National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in a statement. "Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens."

The prediction is based on a "confluence of factors," the NOAA statement said, including neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions. When there are El Niño or La Niña conditions, they "change atmospheric circulation and push the jet streams around in specific ways," the NOAA said. In neutral conditions like now, "less predictable weather and climate patterns can be more important." Other predictive factors include "warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes," said the statement. These elements together contribute to a higher likelihood of hurricanes and tropical storms forming. "I would not be surprised if we see early-season activity well ahead of the peak," Marshall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia, said to Scientific American.

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While there is a 60% chance of an above-average season, there is also a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season, according to the NOAA.

Rough waters ahead

While "climate change is not expected to increase the number of these storms globally," warming temperatures are "thought to increase the chances of them reaching the highest wind speeds, bringing heavier rainfall and a higher likelihood of coastal flooding," said the BBC. Warm oceans are a particular threat. "Over 60% of the Gulf is at record or near-record warmth for the time of year, and waters east of Florida and around the Bahamas are as warm as we've seen them for the start of any hurricane season in the satellite era," Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at WPLG Local 10 News in Miami, said to Scientific American.

Damages are also expected to be worse this season because both the NOAA and FEMA have faced budget cuts from the Trump administration. "Places in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas are still recovering from Helene, Milton and Debby," Shepherd said in reference to the worst storms of the 2024 season. And proper forecasting is necessary to allow areas to prepare for storms. "The impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities," acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm said. "NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property."