Next London mayor: odds, polls and all the candidates

The race to become the next mayor of London has continued to narrow, just a few days before voters in the capital head to the polls, although incumbent Sadiq Khan is still the clear favourite to win on 2 May.

A new poll has "dramatically stirred up" the race by suggesting that Khan's lead could actually be as small as 13 points, the London Evening Standard reported. A survey by Savanta for Queen Mary University of London carried out between 8 and 17 April found that 46% of those polled intend to vote for Khan, with 33% opting for the Tory candidate, Susan Hall. The race appears especially tight in south and west London, where Khan's lead shrunk to eight points in some boroughs.

The poll will be sobering reading for Khan's team, as previous voter intention surveys have given the current mayor a lead of 20 points or more.

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The campaign has "primarily been restricted to a clash of personalities" between the two leading candidates,  the paper said in a commentary last month. Nevertheless, "this election is critical for the capital's future", with the next mayor overseeing the "root and branch" reform of the Metropolitan Police, addressing the chronic lack of affordable housing in the capital and trying to secure Transport for London's financial future.

Despite being the overwhelming favourite with pollsters, bookies and political commentators, Khan "is haunted by the spectre of defeat", said George Eaton in The New Statesman. Khan and his team are said to fear the vote, which takes place on the same day as local elections, may be "far closer than most believe", partly due to the replacement of the supplementary vote system in mayoral elections with first-past-the-post voting. The change was introduced in 2021 by Boris Johnson's government and "widely interpreted as an attempt to tilt the odds in the Tories’ favour".

Who is standing?

Khan has said he wants to "send a message" to the Tories in seeking to become the first politician to hold the mayor of London office for three terms. He has urged voters not to "let the Tories do to London what they've done to our country", as he hit out at the "hollow, desperate and divisive narrative" put forward by the party.

He will face off against the Conservatives' Hall, a London Assembly member and former council leader. She is a vocal supporter of Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Donald Trump and is hoping to ride a "populist (if not yet popular) ticket to City Hall", said Londonist. Since emerging from a shortlist of relative unknowns last year, Hall has endured a series of media missteps, including what The Mirror described as a "meltdown" on LBC when she was forced to admit she did not know the price of a bus fare, just days after criticising a decision to freeze fares in the capital. Her campaign was faced additional criticism for an attack ad in which the capital was presented as a crime-riddled Gotham-like metropolis, using footage which actually showed New York City.

While Khan and Hall are the only candidates with a serious chance of winning in May, there are 13 people standing for election. These include the Liberal Democrats' Rob Blackie, an anti-Brexit campaigner and adviser to start-up technology companies, and Reform UK's Howard Cox, a small-business adviser with a track record of campaigning for lower petrol prices. Hackney councillor and NHS inequalities adviser Zoë Garbett will be looking to build on growing support for the Greens in the capital.

In alphabetical order, here is the full list of candidates: 

Femy Amin, Animal Welfare Party

Count Binface, Count Binface Party

Rob Blackie, Liberal Democrats

Natalie Campbell, Independent

Howard Cox, Reform UK

Amy Gallagher, Social Democratic Party

Zoë Garbett, Green Party

Tarun Ghulati, Independent

Susan Hall, Conservative and Unionist Party

Sadiq Khan, Labour Party

Andreas Michli, Independent

Brian Rose, London Real Party

Nick Scanlon, Britain First

What will be the key issues?

Khan is looking to focus on his environmental and council-house-building policies as key achievements of his tenure, as well as the introduction of universal free school meals for primary pupils and freezing single Tube and bus fares until 2025.

In an interview with The Telegraph earlier this month, Hall re-iterated her plans for better policing, a greater focus on women and scrapping the ultra low emission zone (Ulez) – Khan's "soft underbelly" since he controversially expanded the charging zone to include outer London in August, said the paper.

But with both main candidates "promising to bring better, greener transport to London, crack down on crime, and build more homes, according to their campaign websites", said the London Evening Standard podcast, "it appears that the only issue the two disagree on is Ulez" – which Hall has made one of the centrepieces of her campaign.

What do the polls say?

A YouGov poll last week put Khan 19 points ahead of his Conservative rival but the mayor's aides insist that a "perfect storm" of factors could oust him from City Hall, said The New Statesman's Eaton.

Chief among these is the change to a first-past-the-post voting system, which is seen as the big wildcard in May's election. Forced through by the government, the change in how the mayor is elected is "expected to improve the Conservative mayoral candidate's chances of winning in a city which has been increasingly Labour-leaning in recent years”, said On London. This is because they will not have to assemble a coalition of more than 50% of the voters; they just need the most votes.

Looking at the last election, in 2021, Khan secured 40% of first preference votes, with his Tory rival Shaun Bailey on 35%. The new system will mean closing the gap should be easier for the Conservatives.

In a bid to counter this, Khan has warned against voting for other parties, arguing that a vote for the Greens or Liberal Democrats in a first-past-the-post system "means one less vote for the Tories to get".

On top of changes to the electoral system, Khan also faces the "obstacles of incumbency" in seeking a third term, said The Guardian, although the latest polls still give him a comfortable lead – albeit one growing less comfortable as election day nears.

Sky Bet still has Khan as the strong favourite to win at 1-25, with Hall an outsider at 8-1, so barring some 11th-hour scandal the race looks Khan's to lose.