The Conservatives could lose well over 1,000 council seats when voters head to the polls next month in the last major verdict on Rishi Sunak's government before the general election.
More than 2,500 council seats in 107 local authorities across England are up for grabs on 2 May. Tory party insiders "have already priced in heavy losses", says The Guardian, with some analyses predicting more than half of existing Conservative seats will change hands.
With MPs safe until the next general election, Conservative councillors are fighting on an electoral battleground that a senior Tory source compared to "the Somme without the generals".
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Which elections are taking place?
As well as the local council polls, voters will choose the mayor of London, London Assembly members and 10 other mayors. Voters across England and Wales will also elect 37 police and crime commissioners.
Many local election results will be announced overnight, with more following through the day on Friday 3 May, and a few to be announced over the following weekend. Mayoral and London Assembly results will be declared on Friday and Saturday.
What are the police and crime commissioner elections?
Introduced in 2012, police and crime commissioners (PCCs) are officials elected in England and Wales to ensure that local police forces are efficient, effective and accountable to the public. They are responsible for appointing chief constables and overseeing spending.
PCCs are elected to a four-year term, with no limits on the number of terms they can serve.
Who can vote?
You can use the Electoral Commission's postcode tool to see what elections, if any, are taking place in your area on 2 May.
British citizens, qualifying Commonwealth citizens and those with citizenship of an EU member state are all eligible to vote in local elections, although most EU citizens cannot vote in the general election. You can find out more about these distinctions here.
The deadline for registering to vote in time for the 2024 local elections has passed, but if you want to vote in upcoming elections, you can register using the government's Gov.uk portal. You will need your National Insurance number.
In a major new change, voters in England now need to show photo ID to confirm their identity at polling stations. You can see the list of accepted forms of identification here. The ID document does not need to be in date, as long as the photo is still clearly recognisable.
If you do not possess any of them, you can apply for a free Voter Authority Certificate, although the deadline has now passed to apply for one in time for the 2 May elections.
Who is predicted to win?
Labour is widely expected to claim a "resounding victory" in the 107 council contests, said The Guardian. But the possibility of Starmer's party getting a "clean sweep" in the mayoral polls is "what is really causing jitters in Conservative Party headquarters".
The latest polling gives London's incumbent mayor, Sadiq Khan, a 13-point lead over his Tory rival, Susan Hall, according to a Savanta survey in the Daily Mail. Hall has has "stumbled through gaffe-filled interviews", said The Times, But Labour is reportedly worried that the race will be "tighter than the polls suggest", owing to changes to voter ID requirements and in the first-past-the-post voting system, as well as "resilient Conservative support in outer London".
The Conservatives went into the 2021 local elections six points ahead of Labour, boosted by "the speedy rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine", said polling expert John Curtice in The Telegraph. The then prime minister Boris Johnson saw his party make a net gain of 13 councils and more than 200 council seats, "a rare accomplishment for an incumbent government".
The outlook now is "very, very different", as the Tories trail Labour by 20 points. However, "not everyone votes in local elections in the same way as they would in a general election", said Curtice, and parties such as the Liberal Democrats and Greens tend to "perform better".
More generally, public "anger" over council tax hikes and service cuts, as a growing number of local authorities face funding crises, "may be reflected at the ballot box", said the BBC.
What is the wider significance?
The results could influence the timing of the general election, which must take place by 28 January 2025, and the strategies adopted by each party.
A Tory wipeout could also leave Sunak battling to retain his premiership. "Qualms" about Sunak's leadership have already been voiced within the party, said The Guardian, and calls for his replacement may become "more public and louder", especially if the Tories lose the mayoral elections in Tees Valley and the West Midlands.
For Starmer, a strong result will put further wind in his sails as he steers a course towards 10 Downing Street. But if Labour fails to live up to expectations, the party's general election campaign might veer in new directions.
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