World Cup round of 16: Japan vs. Croatia prediction, preview and team news

Croatia, the runners-up at the Fifa World Cup in 2018, reached the knockout rounds in Qatar after finishing second in group F behind Morocco. Their last-16 opponents, Japan, came through as winners of the dreaded “group of death”.

As the “resident giant-killers” of this World Cup, Japan pulled off two superb victories in group E, beating Germany and Spain 2-1, said Ben Knapton on SportsMole. They will “endeavour to pull off another impressive scalp” in Monday’s round of 16 clash at the Al Janoub Stadium.

Everyone was “really surprised” that Japan won the group, and that Germany were knocked out, former Croatia midfielder Ivan Rakitic told Fifa+. However, when you watch them play, “you understand why it happened”. Japan have a lot of “individual and team qualities”, he added. “It will be very hard to play against them. We’ll need to be at 100%.”

The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

While the “Samurai Blue” have been one of the “revelations of the tournament”, dark horses Croatia “have not set the stage alight” yet, said Ume Elvis on SportsKeeda. It could be a matter of Zlatko Dalić’s side “growing into the tournament”, with the world’s 12th highest-ranked team “still possessing numerous world beaters in their ranks”, including 2018 Golden Ball winner Luka Modric.

The winners of this match will play Brazil or South Korea in the quarter-finals.

Match facts

• Who: Japan vs. Croatia
• What: Fifa World Cup round of 16
• When: Monday 5 December 2022
• Where: Al Janoub Stadium, Al Wakrah
• Kick-off time: 3pm (all times GMT)

How to watch on TV in the UK

Monday’s last-16 clash between Japan and Croatia will be shown live in the UK on BBC One and BBC iPlayer. TV coverage begins at 2.30pm and the match kicks off at 3pm.

Team news

Japan will be without centre-back Kou Itakura, who is suspended after picking up two bookings in the group stage. Takehiro Tomiyasu and Wataru Endo could both return to the starting line-up, but Hiroki Sakai is still recovering from injury. Should they get booked against Croatia, Miki Yamane, Shogo Taniguchi, Wataru Endo, and Maya Yoshida would miss the quarter-final if Japan progress.

Croatia boss Zlatko Dalić may well stick with the same XI that drew 0-0 with Belgium in their final group game. Should they get booked against Japan, Luka Modric and Dejan Lovren would miss the quarter-final if Croatia progress.

Possible starting XIs

• Japan: Shuichi Gonda, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Maya Yoshida, Shogo Taniguchi, Yuto Nagatomo; Junya Ito, Wataru Endo, Hidemasa Morita, Takefusa Kubo, Daichi Kamada, Takuma Asano
• Croatia: Dominik Livakovic, Josip Juranovic, Dejan Lovren, Josko Gvardiol, Borna Sosa, Luka Modric, Marcelo Brozovic, Mateo Kovacic, Andrej Kramaric, Ivan Perisic, Marko Livaja

Predictions

I don’t think the Samurai Blue “are done at this tournament yet”, said Chris Sutton on the BBC. Although I can see this tie “going the distance” and “all the way into extra-time before they win it”. Prediction: 1-1 after 90 minutes – Japan to win 2-1 after extra-time.

We would “not be surprised” to see this one decided from 12 yards, said Ben Knapton on SportsMole. But we predict that Croatia will deny Japan a first-ever appearance in the World Cup quarter-finals. Prediction: Japan 1 Croatia 1 after extra-time – Croatia advance on penalties.

Japan’s World Cup results have been “wildly unpredictable”, said Grey Whitebloom on 90min.com. This tournament has been full of shocking results so far, so “why can’t Japan cause another upset” and reach the quarter-final? Prediction: Japan 2 Croatia 1.

Croatia are “defensively disciplined enough” not to concede twice against Japan, like both Germany and Spain have done after half-time, said Kyle Bonn on Sporting News. The cat is “somewhat out of the bag” on this Japan team, and that should “serve Croatia well”. This game will go to extra-time and penalties.

History suggests that this could be a low-scoring game, said Ume Elvis on SportsKeeda. We are backing both sides to “cancel each other out in regulation time”, with Croatia to progress thanks to a “narrow victory” in extra-time. Prediction: Japan 1 Croatia 1 – Croatia to win 2-1 after extra time.

It’s “difficult to look past” Japan, such has been their “ability to rise to the challenge” at this World Cup, said Jonathan Gorrie in the London Evening Standard. Prediction: Japan 2 Croatia 1.

According to Opta’s model, “the odds are against Japan”, said Patric Ridge on Opta Analyst. Japan are given a “26% chance of progressing to the last eight” while Croatia are the favourites at 46.1%. “Do not be surprised to see this one go to extra-time, though – the draw is ranked at a 27.9% chance.”

The stadium

Six group matches were held at the 40,000-capacity Al Janoub Stadium in Al Wakrah, Qatar. This round of 16 tie between Japan and Croatia is the last game the stadium will host at the 2022 World Cup. The design of the stadium is “inspired by the sails of traditional dhow boats”, in tribute to Al Wakrah’s seafaring past, said Fifa.

Squads

Japan

• Head coach: Hajime Moriyasu
• Key player: Takumi Minamino
• One to watch: Kaoru Mitoma
• Goalkeepers: Eiji Kawashima (Strasbourg), Shuichi Gonda (Shimizu S-Pulse), Schmid Daniel (Sint-Troiden VV)
• Defenders: Hiroki Sakai (Urawa Red Diamonds), Miki Yamane (Kawasaki Frontale), Ko Itakura (Borussia Monchengladbach), Takehiro Tomiyasu (Arsenal), Maya Yoshida (Schalke), Shogo Taniguchi (Kawasaki Frontale), Hiroki Ito (Stuttgart), Yuto Nagatomo (FC Tokyo)
• Midfielders: Junya Ito (Reims), Ritsu Doan (Fribourg), Wataru Endo (Stuttgart), Hidemasa Morita (Sporting), Ao Tanaka (Fortuna Dusseldorf), Daichi Kamada (Francfort), Take Kubo (Real Sociedad), Takumi Minamino (Monaco), Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton), Gaku Shibasaki (Leganes), Yuki Soma (Nagoya Grampus)
• Forwards: Daizen Maeda (Celtic), Ayase Ueda (Cercle de Bruges), Takuma Asano (Bochum)

Croatia

• Head coach: Zlatko Dalić
• Key player: Luka Modric
• One to watch: Josko Gvardiol
• Goalkeepers: Domink Livakovic (Dinamo Zagreb), Ivica Ivusic (NK Osijek), Ivo Grbic (Atletico Madrid)
• Defenders: Domagoj Vida (AEK Athens), Dejan Lovren (Zenit St Petersburg), Borna Barisic (Rangers), Josip Juranovic (Celtic), Josko Gvardiol (RB Leipzig), Borna Sosa (VfB Stuttgart), Josip Stanisic (Bayern Munich), Martin Erlic (Sassuolo), Josip Sutalo (Dinamo Zagreb)
• Midfielders: Luka Modric (Real Madrid), Mateo Kovacic (Chelsea), Marcelo Brozovic (Inter Milan), Mario Pasalic (Atalanta), Nikola Vlasic (Torino, on loan from West Ham), Lovro Majer (Rennes), Kristijan Jakic (Eintracht Frankfurt), Luka Sucic (RB Salzburg)
• Forwards: Ivan Perisic (Tottenham), Andrej Kramaric (1899 Hoffenheim), Bruno Petkovic (Dinamo Zagreb), Mislav Orsic (Dinamo Zagreb), Ante Budimir (Osasuna), Marko Livaja (Hajduk Split)