Does the UK need October ‘firebreak’ lockdown?

England may be facing another lockdown within weeks if Covid-19 hospitalisations keep rising, according to a government scientist.

The unnamed member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) told the i news site that ministers had drawn up plans for an October “firebreak” shutdown after being advised that the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations.

The plans reportedly include doubling half-term to two weeks for most schools in England and Wales, as the government scrambles to prevent the NHS from being pushed to the brink.

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“This is essentially the precautionary break that Sage suggested last year,” said the source. “It would be sensible to have contingency plans, and if a lockdown is required, to time it so that it has minimal economic and societal impact.”

State of play

Another government source also told the i news site that Downing Street would have to “seriously consider” another lockdown if the current trajectory of hospital admissions continues throughout September.

“If you look at the current trends, hospitalisations are on a path to match the levels seen at the end of October last year,” the insider said.

Although related death rates “are unlikely to hit the levels as seen last autumn because the vaccines are doing their job, it is the admissions that will push the NHS to the brink of collapse if they do not fall soon”, the source added.

“On top of that we have an expected resurgence in hospitalisations for other respiratory illnesses like flu. If the current high levels of admissions for Covid continue, the NHS will not be able to cope, so a firebreak lockdown is by no means out of the question.”

Covid deaths are currently ten times lower than during January’s peak, and most patients admitted to hospital have comparatively more mild symptoms. However, hospitalisations are now at a similar level to when Boris Johnson announced the UK’s second national lockdown, on 31 October 2020.

According to latest government data, an average of 939 patients were admitted to hospital with Covid-19 each day in the week up to 28 August, while related deaths averaged just over 107 per day.

Daily new infections now stand at more than 41,000, compared with around 16,500 daily new cases last October.

Although another full lockdown is “unlikely”, said the i news site, “there are a range of measures the government could introduce” if the virus continues to spread.

Another lockdown?

Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi insisted during a media round this morning that he had seen no plans for an autumn firebreak lockdown.

But he “did not confirm or deny” whether he would endorse such a lockdown if Covid hospitalisations remain high, said Sky News.

Speaking to the broadcaster, Zahawi said the government’s booster vaccination programme was his “absolute priority” as it would “absolutely help us to transition the virus from pandemic to endemic status”.

However, the “one-way road towards sustaining the opening of the economy” will only happen “if we do that well”, he cautioned.

As millions of school children returned to school this week, experts warned that the country was entering a critical period in the next phase of the pandemic.

“Uncertainty over people’s behaviour, the number of unvaccinated people and how long immunity will last means that experts are struggling to predict what will happen next,” said The Times.

Sage member Professor John Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the paper that infection numbers were unlikely to come down “any time soon”.

“We are left waiting for herd immunity to kick in to stop the epidemic going any further, and I think we’re quite a long way away from that,” he said. “We’re in for a more difficult period, more cases than most people think that we’re in for, and that will put pressure on the health service.”

As the nation braces for a fresh wave of Covid cases, the government’s plans to retain the “draconian” powers that it gained under the Coronavirus Act is perhaps the clearest sign that ministers are “considering the possibility of fresh restrictions in the months ahead”, said The Independent.

The government wants to extend the emergency legislation until March 2022, in case more restrictions are needed. The legislation gives the government and police powers to regulate public gatherings, close premises and force people to comply with isolation rules.