Covid case slump hopes: why is Downing Street resisting Plan B?

Boris Johnson’s so-called Plan B restrictions could cost the UK economy up to £18bn in damage, according to leaked Treasury and Cabinet Office documents.

The files, which were obtained by Politico, contained the assumption that the alternative strategy – which includes compulsory face masks, vaccine passports and advice to work from home – would have to be in place all of winter, until the end of March 2022.

But a government spokesperson told Sky News that the presumptions were “untrue” and did “not reflect government policy”. They added: “The data does not currently show that Plan B is necessary – and there is no planned five-month timeline.”

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Data not dates

New modelling seen by the government has suggested that Covid cases will plummet in the coming weeks even without implementing so-called Plan B restrictions.

On Sunday, The Telegraph reported that a forecast by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) predicted that cases will peak soon before falling steeply in the winter months, even without compulsory face masks, vaccine passports and advice to work from home.

The paper said ministers have been “holding back” from introducing Plan B restrictions after seeing the modelling and other unpublished forecasts that projected a similar imminent drop. Some experts reportedly believe that Covid cases could fall from the current rate of nearly 40,000 a day to around 5,000 a day before Christmas.

Government resists

Chancellor Rishi Sunak told BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show on Sunday that “at the moment the data does not suggest that we should be immediately moving to Plan B”. Vaccines Minister Maggie Throup also insisted that Plan A was “working” and that the situation was “where we need to be”.

Javid emphasised that message on Monday’s BBC Breakfast saying that he believed the UK will have “a normal Christmas” this year.

According to The Telegraph, “scientists believe that the virus is close to reaching ‘endemic equilibrium’”.

High case rates among children are driving much of the current wave, the paper explained. Scientific sources “close to the government” have told ministers that the “children’s epidemic” will soon run out of steam, as immunity in youngsters increases through infection and vaccination. Case numbers are also expected to fall as a result of the October half-term.

Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said: “There are times when delaying is really valuable, but there comes a point when restrictions have no value because you’ve got as much protection as you’re going to get, so you end up putting it off to a point where you lose immunity.

“What the modelling suggests is that even without Plan B, we should expect to see case numbers falling quite rapidly in the next few weeks.”

The Telegraph has noted that none of the government models account for the new “Delta-plus” variant, which may be up to 10% more infectious, and could therefore impact the decline in case numbers.

‘Vortex of pressures’

Downing Street has been urged to implement Plan B as health chiefs warn of a “vortex of pressures” encircling the NHS. Senior doctors have predicted “a triple whammy” of respiratory illnesses this winter: Covid-19, flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

Labour has backed the calls to introduce further restrictions, claiming the vaccine programme – government’s Plan A – was “stalling”.

Although the government has publicly rejected the demand, The Observer reported over the weekend that “new evidence has emerged that the government is paving the way to implement ‘plan B’ measures in England” to combat the spread of coronavirus.

According to the paper, the UK Health Security Agency contacted local authorities on Friday to assess their level of support for the “immediate rollout of the winter plan”.

In a memo marked “official – sensitive”, the agency said it was urgently seeking the views of council chief executives and leaders on behalf of the government. “This is a tight turnaround as you might appreciate and so a response by close of play would be really helpful,” the agency added.

Covid passport controversy

Another internal analysis by the government, seen by The Telegraph, revealed a series of concerns about how vaccine passports would work and the “knock-on implications”.

The assessment of the economic and social impact of Covid-19 certification, written by the Department of Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS), looked at concerns that the requirement could push fans from “structured and well ventilated sports stadia” and “lead to them attending unstructured and poorly ventilated pubs instead”.

It also found that opinion polls showed people would feel safer at events where certification was adopted, but that some venues had raised concerns about the logistics of checking all their customers.

Again, a spokesperson for the DCMS said the document “does not represent government policy”.

They added: “There is currently no evidence to suggest that businesses have been impacted by lower attendance when certification is used, with various venues already using this on entry throughout the year.”

If enforced, an NHS Covid Pass – or vaccine passport – would be required for access to nightclubs, indoor venues with more than a 500-person capacity, outdoor venues with more than 4,000 people in close proximity, and any venue with more than 10,000 attendees.

Vaccine passports have been legally enforceable in Scotland since 18 October. The Scottish Hospitality Group (SHG) has been calling on the Scottish government to scrap the scheme, claiming that some venues have seen a drop in footfall of up to 40% since it was introduced.

“The first weekend of the vaccine passports scheme has been one of unmitigated disaster and that responsibility lies entirely at the door of the Scottish Government,” said SHG spokesperson Stephen Montgomery.