Restriction fatigue: will Britain comply with new Covid rules?

Face coverings will become compulsory in shops and on public transport from tomorrow in response to the new Omicron variant that has been detected in England and Scotland.

Teachers and pupils in English secondary schools are also being “strongly advised” to wear masks in communal areas, while all international arrivals must take a day PCR test by the end of day two and self-isolate until they receive a negative result.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the government had acted “swiftly” and “in a proportionate way” to the emergence of the new variant to ensure that everyone can “enjoy Christmas with our families”.

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The government is due to review the measures in three weeks’ time, “just before most schools break up for the Christmas holidays”, noted the BBC’s political correspondent Iain Watson. “While the UK is far from facing a lockdown, there is no guarantee that the restrictions will be lifted – and they could even be tightened.”

But some politicians and scientists are concerned that the British public will not obey the new rules.

Behavioural fatigue

The chief medical officer for England has admitted that his “greatest worry at the moment” is that the public would not consent to another round of restrictions.

Professor Chris Whitty said he was concerned about “behavioural fatigue” almost two years into the crisis, and wondered if “we need to do something more muscular, at some point, whether it’s for the current new variant or at some later stage, can we still take people with us?”

Acknowledging that restrictions have been “very destructive to social and economic situations for individuals and families”, Whitty added that it was “easier to be confident of people’s response right at the beginning, than it is after people have put up with two years of their lives being interfered with”.

Non-compliance

Unite’s national officer for passenger transport, Bobby Morton, told The Telegraph that public transport faces a “high degree of non-compliance” on masks.

Mick Lynch, of the Rail, Maritime and Transport Union, also predicted difficulties. He said: “There are major issues about enforcement and it is our members left in the front line with angry passengers who refuse to comply.”

And James Lowman, chief executive of the Association of Convenience Stores, told the newspaper that retailers were “extremely concerned” about abuse against their staff from customers refusing to wear masks.

Declining adherence

Analysis of household mixing during previous lockdowns in England has found that adherence to the rules declined over time. Writing for The Conversation, Ed Manley, professor of urban analytics at the University of Leeds, and Mengdie Zhuang, lecturer in data science at the University of Sheffield, said there was initially a “rapid reduction in people visiting other residential areas” in March 2020. At the lowest point, this activity was 56.4% below baseline levels.

However, later national lockdowns saw higher levels of mixing – the second lockdown in November 2020 saw just a 15.3% reduction. There was then a “significant rise in visitation” from January to mid-February 2021 as the third national lockdown continued, suggesting a “slowly declining adherence to the stay-at-home rules as the pandemic went on”, they said.

Meanwhile, a poll by James Johnson, on behalf of Kekst CNC, found that at the start of the pandemic, 13% of people said they would rather protect the economy than limit the spread of the virus. Earlier this month that had risen to 36%. Meanwhile, the number wanting to limit the spread had fallen from 74% to 42%.

Taste of freedom

“Having had an extended taste of freedom since July, are we prepared to give up our liberties once more?” asked Ben Spencer, science editor of The Sunday Times.

Ultimately, he thought the public would remain rational. “People will follow rules, will change their behaviour, as long as they understand the rationale behind the request,” said Spencer.

The latest restrictions “will not have a huge impact on people’s lives”, he added, whereas compliance to any future, more severe restrictions, “will depend on the perceived scale of the threat, and the clarity with which ministers present the request.

“After nearly two years of the pandemic, we will not so quickly retreat into our homes.”