Scientists monitoring new Covid Delta variant with ‘horrific spike profile’

Travellers arriving in England from six African countries will have to quarantine in hotels as concern grows about the spread of a new Covid-19 variant

Health Secretary Sajid Javid announced yesterday that travellers from South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho and Eswatini will have to self-isolate for ten days on arrival in the UK, effectively placing the countries back on the travel “red list”.

According to Sky News, flights from the six countries will also be “suspended” until the UK’s quarantine system is in place.

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What is the new variant?

The B.1.1.529, or “Nu”, variant carries an extremely high number of mutations and may cause new waves of the virus by evading the body’s defences.

The mutations in the variant are in its spike protein, the part of the virus that most vaccines use to prime the immune system against Covid. Cases have so far been noted in South Africa, Hong Kong, Belgium, Botswana and Israel.

Dr Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London, tweeted that the variant “very, very much should be monitored due to that horrific spike profile”, although he did add that it could equally be an “odd cluster” that is not very transmissible.

Is it more transmissible?

Preliminary evidence suggests this is the case. In the South African province of Gauteng, where infections have risen sharply, experts found that the proportion of cases that appeared to be the new variant have also rocketed.

It is “unlikely” that this is down to chance, said The Times science editor Tom Whipple. He said it suggests the variant is “either better able to spread or better able to infect people who have prior immunity – either from vaccination or infection.

“Or,” he added, “it is both.”

So can it evade vaccines?

There is concern that the variant is “radically different” to the original strain, the BBC said, which may mean vaccines may not be as effective.

“Our collective immunity has already taken a hit with Delta”, explained The Times’ Whipple, with “serious worries in Whitehall that this could be worse”.

“If so, we might have to consider variant vaccines,” he said. “They will take weeks to develop, rather than a year – but are still unlikely to be ready to stop a wave once it begins.”

When will we know more?

Health chiefs said it would take several weeks before there is helpful data on how the immune response deals with the variant. It could then take some months before we can assess its effects in the real world.

However, the BBC added that there have been many examples of variants that have “seemed scary on paper” but eventually “came to nothing”.

What have experts said?

Dr Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser at the UK Health Security Agency, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the Nu variant is “complex” and “challenging” and “the most worrying we’ve seen”.

However, Professor Francois Balloux, director of University College London’s Genetics Institute, said that while the strain “should be closely monitored and analysed”, there is currently “no reason to get overly concerned unless it starts going up in frequency in the near future”.

Will it affect Christmas in the UK?

The Guardian said it is too early to know, but added that with a month to go until the festive season, there “will be concerns that the variant – if it is allowed to spread – could trigger the need for further restrictions”.

Professor Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, told Good Morning Britain that while he does not “want to induce unnecessary anxiety in people” we should “be ready for the possibility of a change in the restrictions”.