What happened to the UK’s Covid statistics after self-isolation was scrapped?

Covid infections and hospitalisations have both increased since the government lifted mandatory self-isolation measures on 24 February.

The Daily Mail reported yesterday that Britain’s “Covid wave continued to rebound” as data showed cases “surged by their largest jump since Freedom Day”, when restrictions were eased on 19 July last year.

Government dashboard data showed there were 61,900 new positive tests over the previous 24 hours, up 58.7% on last week’s figure of 39,000. However, noted the newspaper, testing is being wound down, making the true scale of infections harder to measure, and raising the prospect that the true number of infections could be even higher than the official figures suggests.

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Daily hospital admissions with Covid are now rising in all of England’s seven NHS regions, and hospitals in the South West region are recording more daily Covid admissions now than during the peak of the Omicron wave.

Between 2 and 8 March, there were 729 deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test – a decrease of 1.6% compared to the previous seven days. However, this is a lagging indicator, as deaths tend to occur some weeks after infection.

Indeed, prior to the latest surge in figures, the rise in hospital admissions has not followed, as would normally be expected, a rise in cases.

The government website showed that between 1 and 7 March, 4,392,544 tests were carried out – a decrease of 2.8% compared to the previous seven days.

The i news site said that the latest figures “will cast doubt on the government’s ‘living with Covid’ strategy,” under which mass testing is being phased out by 1 April and people are no longer required to self-isolate if they test positive.

Last week it was also reported that the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies has been stood down, in what The Telegraph described as “a clear sign that the government believes the Covid crisis is over”.

Commenting on the rise in infections, Dr Simon Clarke, a microbiologist at Reading University, said: “It might be that we’re starting to see the level of protection given by the boosters drop below a level that gives good protection.”

He said the rise in infection is “a reminder that Covid has not gone away yet, and you can’t just wish it away”.