Western intelligence officials have warned that Russia could still “win” the war in Ukraine, despite bungling its initial invasion.
The Times, which said the war is now expected to last until the end of the year, reported that Western intelligence suggests Putin has made tactical adjustments after his troops were “humiliated” in the first two months of the invasion.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Putin has appointed an experienced commander to oversee the second phase of Russia’s war effort. General Alexander Dvornikov led Moscow’s intervention in Syria, where he ordered the bombing of Aleppo.
Russia’s troops now outnumber Ukrainian forces in the east three to one and could encircle and “destroy” a significant proportion, officials told The Times. It is also thought that Russia could launch a new assault on Kyiv or cut the Ukrainian capital off from the Black Sea.
The main focus of the war is the eastern Donbas region, which is largely “flat with firm terrain”, said The Times, which will pose fewer problems for Russian artillery and tanks compared to northern Ukraine.
However, added the official, the invasion would remain a “strategic blunder” for Russia given the substantial losses its army has suffered and the way the conflict has changed Europe’s security architecture to Russia’s detriment.
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has said that Russia’s gains in the east of the country are only temporary. In his latest daily address, he said: “They can only delay the inevitable, the time when the invaders will have to leave our territory.”