Is Hezbollah losing its grip in Lebanon?

Hezbollah has lost control of Lebanon’s parliament after voters shunned the Islamist party and militant group in the first election since the country’s economic crisis.

Early results suggest the party, which is led by Hassan Nasrallah and backed by Iran, has won less than the 64 seats needed for a majority when its final tally is combined with its ally, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) led by President Michel Aoun. The Islamist party has governed alongside its Christian allies since 2018.

The potential change of leadership follows “years of disaster” in Lebanon, said The Times, including a banking collapse, widespread energy shortages and a chemical explosion in Beirut two years ago that killed 200 people.

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Hung parliament

Preliminary results suggest Lebanon is heading for a hung parliament, a result that would be “a major blow” to Hezbollah and “could fracture parliament into several camps and polarise it more sharply” between the Islamists’ allies and opponents, Reuters said.

Opposition to Hezbollah is “not currently united into a single bloc”, the news agency added. And any political “deadlock” will almost certainly “derail reforms required to unlock support from the International Monetary Fund to ease Lebanon’s economic crisis”.

While candidates from established parties failed to secure seats in Sunday’s vote, “several anti-establishment” figures won the backing of voters, Al Jazeera reported.

Among the 76 winners announced by interior minister Bassam Mawlawi yesterday were “at least nine anti-establishment opposition” figures, the broadcaster said. This included candidates who defeated parliament’s deputy speaker Elie Ferzli and Talal Arslan, the leader of the highly influential Druze sect.

Unofficial results also show Hezbollah’s Christian ally – the FPM – has “lost ground” to the right-wing Saudi-backed Christian Lebanese Forces (CLF), euronews said. With “an estimated 20 seats”, the CLF may now “become the largest Christian party in the parliament”.

Political reversal

While results are still yet to be published in full, early indications suggest that the election has prompted “a reversal of Lebanon’s last election in 2018”, Reuters reported. Four years ago, Hezbollah and its allies secured a majority, “pulling Lebanon deeper into the orbit of Shi’ite-led Iran and away from Sunni-led Saudi Arabia”.

The success of the CLF, which is backed by Saudi Arabia, “could open the door for Riyadh to exercise greater sway in Beirut”, a long-standing “arena of its rivalry with Tehran”. Such an outcome would be a direct threat to Hezbollah, which has been sanctioned by the US over its close links to Iran.

The rise of “anti-establishment” candidates should also be seen as “a strong message to ruling class politicians”, euronews said, who have overseen “a devastating economic collapse that has plunged the majority of the country into poverty”.

But the result also looks likely to produce “a fragmented parliament” that “will make it harder for Lebanon to pass the new laws needed to begin the financial recovery”.

Spent force

Voter turnout was down to 41% from 49% in 2018, indicating that Hezbollah “may have failed to mobilise their supporters”, euronews reported.

The Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections has also alleged “that its members were threatened and attacked by several groups”, the broadcaster said, “mostly in areas controlled” by the Islamist group.

The extent to which the result will impact Hezbollah’s influence remains to be seen, with some observers pointing out that Lebanon’s prescribed power-sharing agreement means it is impossible to sideline the group.

The nation shares power among its religious communities, with government positions normally “passed down among political families”, The Times said. By convention, the president is a Maronite Christian, the premier a Sunni Muslim and parliament’s speaker a Shia Muslim.

But if the group feels that its political influence is waning, it could begin a “wave” of political assassinations driven by a fear its critics “are rising”, warned The Jerusalem Post’s senior Middle East correspondent Seth J. Frantzman.

Hezbollah has “previously tried to consolidate power over all institutions in Lebanon” either through “using the weapons it has or through partnerships”. And it could become more dangerous as it begins “losing steam”.

“Much remains to be cleared up about how Hezbollah will react” to the disappointing result, but “its leadership is aging, and it has fewer friends in the region”, Frantzman added. “The only thing it still has is its illegal masses of weapons.”