Why the US is warning about Russian ‘kill lists’

A senior US official has written to the UN’s high commissioner for human rights warning of a Russian plot to round up and kill dissidents and activists in the event of a successful invasion of Ukraine.

In a letter seen by The Washington Post, Bathsheba Nell Crocker, the US ambassador to the UN, warned that American intelligence suggests Moscow has begun “creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation”.

The plan is reminiscent of “past Russian operations” that “included targeted killings, kidnappings/forced disappearances, unjust detentions, and the use of torture”, she warned, with intel also pointing to use of “lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests”.

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Crocker’s intervention came as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters that “everything we’re seeing suggests that this is dead serious, that we are on the brink of an invasion”. His intervention was echoed by Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin, who claimed it was “highly likely” Russian tanks would soon be seen on the streets of Kiev.

“Kill lists”

Rumours that Russia was planning for a “post-invasion arrest and assassination campaign in Ukraine” were first made public by Foreign Policy last week.

The magazine revealed that US intelligence suggests “Russia may target prominent political opponents, anti-corruption activists, and Belarusian and Russian dissidents living in exile should it move forward with plans to invade”.

Citing four people familiar with the intel, it said: “Russia has drafted lists of Ukrainian political figures and other prominent individuals to be targeted for either arrest or assassination in the event of a Russian assault on Ukraine.” Known as “kill lists”, the documents listing targets are being put together by “Russian intelligence agencies such as the FSB and GRU” and are being tracked by the Five Eyes intelligence alliance.

“As we’ve seen in the past, we expect Russia will try to force cooperation through intimidation and repression,” an official who spoke on the condition of anonymity told the magazine.

The acts would likely target “Russian and Belarusian dissidents in exile in Ukraine, journalists and anti-corruption activists, and vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons”, they added.

This line is repeated verbatim in Crocker’s letter to the UN, which states “that a further Russian invasion of Ukraine would produce widespread human suffering”.

Crocker said the US was sharing the intelligence to avoid “a human rights catastrophe”, adding: “We have credible information that indicates Russian forces are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation.

“We also have credible information that Russian forces will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations,” she warned.

Peace process

The warning of a Russian plan to deploy brutal repression measures against Ukrainian civil society comes as Joe Biden agreed “in principle” to hold a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the crisis.

The White House said that talks proposed by France can only go ahead if Russia does not invade, with hope mounting that a “meeting could offer a possible diplomatic solution to one of the worst security crises in Europe in decades”, the BBC said.

The potential negotiations were announced by the French presidency “after two phone calls between Emmanuel Macron and Putin, which went on for almost three hours in total”. A second exchange took place “in the early hours of Monday Moscow time, and followed a 15-minute conversation Macron had with Biden”.

The Biden administration this weekend said “they’re still working toward a diplomatic solution”, Politico said, while stressing that “what they’re seeing on the ground points to an imminent invasion of Ukraine”.

Cited evidence includes “intelligence from Ukraine and Western powers that false-flag operations, which Putin could use to fabricate an excuse to invade Ukraine and avoid taking responsibility for starting the conflict, are mounting”.

“Russia also decided to indefinitely extend the stay of its troops in neighbouring Belarus,” the site said, “where military exercises were scheduled to end on Sunday.”

Satellite imagery suggests that “the number of Russian ground units in the area – known as battalion tactical groups – has also grown to between 120 and 125, compared with 83 two weeks ago”, Sky News reported.

“Each of these battalion tactical groups has between 750 and 1,000 soldiers,” prompting a belief in the White House that “Russia’s military presence along the border has been ramped up further”.