Does Emmanuel Macron have a ‘historic solution’ for Russia-Ukraine tensions?

Emmanuel Macron has said a deal to avert a full-scale conflict between Russian and Ukraine is in reach ahead of a high-risk diplomatic trip to see Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

Before departing Paris for a meeting with the Russian president today, Macron said that the aim of the talks was to seek a “new balance” to protect European states and appease Russia, while stressing that Ukrainian sovereignty was non-negotiable.

The French president told the Journal du Dimanche newspaper that Putin’s objective in massing troops on his neighbour’s border was “not Ukraine”, arguing that the Kremlin was in fact seeking “a clarification of the rules… with Nato and the EU”.

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The Elysee has remained “in a deep dialogue” with the Kremlin, he continued, stating that the two countries have a “responsibility to build a historic solution” and that Putin “is available for this”.

‘Sovereignty and peace’

With the French presidential election just months away, the trip to Moscow is “a risky diplomatic move” for Macron, said Reuters.

Before his departure, the French president made “a frenetic series of phone calls with Western allies, Putin and the Ukrainian leader”, seeking commitments to “dial down tensions” amid fears of an invasion.

His opponents in the April presidential vote have leapt on his diplomatic overtures to the Kremlin, The Telegraph reported, with Marine Le Pen telling a rally over the weekend that Macron is “not only despicable but depressing”.

“I will be the president who will give security back to France,” Le Pen told a crowd of some 3,000 people gathered in the Champagne capital of Reims.

Speaking to the Journal du Dimanche, Macron stressed that the aim of his talks with Putin was to “protect our European brothers by proposing a new balance capable of preserving their sovereignty and peace”.

“This must be done while respecting Russia and understanding the contemporary traumas of this great people and great nation”, he said, warning that efforts to appease Russian concerns must not “pass through the weakening of any European state”.

Macron has previously “called for a renewed relationship with Russia”, the BBC reported, arguing earlier this month that “the EU should open its own dialogue with Moscow, rather than rely on Washington”.

But his trip to Moscow, which will be followed by a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kiev, is a joint US-EU effort, having been “co-ordinated with German and American allies”, the broadcaster added.

The masterplan

So what precisely is Macron’s plan for a “historic solution” to European security concerns? According to the French president’s interview with Journal du Dimanche, it involves “de-escalation”, which is “essential to stop the situation deteriorating”.

“The intensity of the dialogue we have had with Russia and this visit to Moscow are designed to stop that happening,” Macron said, warning that “we have to be very realistic” about what talks can achieve and “we will not obtain unilateral gestures”.

The talks will take place against the backdrop of a US warning that “Moscow has assembled at least 70% of the firepower it needs to give Putin the option of a major military operation by mid-February”, The Guardian said.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told Fox News on Sunday: “We are in the window. Any day now, Russia could take military action against Ukraine, or it could be a couple of weeks from now.”

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, however, downplayed the threat of an invasion, tweeting: “Do not believe the apocalyptic predictions. Different capitals have different scenarios, but Ukraine is ready for any development.”

In heading to meet Putin in person, Macron “has positioned himself at the centre of the diplomacy in Europe”, The New York Times (NYT) said. And the move appears to have worked, with a senior official in the French presidency telling the paper that Macron is viewed as a “quality interlocutor” by Putin and his Kremlin officials.

“The chance to lead the effort to create a new European security architecture” has put Macron “front and center on perhaps the biggest stage of his presidency”.

Just two months before he again faces off against the French far-right in April’s election, “it has given him an opportunity to step into a larger leadership role for all of Europe and to put some flesh on his sometimes grandiose visions for… Europe”.

But “the risks are as great as the potential payoffs”, the NYT said. While Macron has “never lacked for audacity”, solutions to the crisis “seem fiendishly elusive for now”.