Will Russia try to invade Ukraine in 2022?

In February 2014 Russian troops without insignia crossed the border into Ukraine and illegally annexed Crimea, provoking widespread condemnation by the international community.

Since then, a proxy war has been waged between Russian sponsored separatists, fighting with the support of their backers in Moscow, and the Ukrainian armed forces bolstered by arms and funding from Kiev’s western allies.

Vladimir Putin’s has maintained his insistence that Russia is not active in the region. But the very public massing of troops in Crimea and the surrounding areas earlier this year has prompted fears that Moscow is preparing for a second wave.

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Emmanuel Macron has said that the next few days will be crucial in avoiding a conflict in eastern Europe following five hours of talks with Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

The French president, who today travelled to Kiev for talks with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told reporters that the meeting would be “decisive” and that de-escalating tensions would “require intensive discussions which we will pursue together”.

Putin said that some of the proposals put forward by Macron “could form the basis of further joint steps”, but it was “probably still too early to talk about” specifics.

A source in the Elysee told the BBC that “Russia had made a commitment not to take any new military initiatives to enable a potential de-escalation” and that “further talks could then take place on key points including Russia’s military units and strategic issues”.

But the Kremlin said that this characterisation of the talks was “not right”. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesperson for the Russian presidency, later told reporters: “This is basically untrue. Moscow and Paris could not have concluded any deals. It’s simply impossible.”

In an “embarrassment” for Macron, said The Times, Peskov also appeared to suggest that “the only country with which Moscow would deal was the US”.

“France holds the presidency of the Council of the EU, and France is a member of Nato, where Paris does not have the leadership,” he said. “In this bloc, leadership belongs to a completely different country. What deals can we even talk about?”

Yesterday, during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Washington, Joe Biden suggested that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would be shut down if Moscow gave the order for an invasion of Ukraine.

Putin’s ‘playbook’

Washington officials in November “privately briefed their EU counterparts on a possible military operation as tens of thousands of Russian troops amass near the border”, The Telegraph said.

Senior Whitehall sources told the paper that the UK government was concerned about the reports, describing a growing “twitchiness” and “anxiety” among officials.

Six years after a ceasefire between Russia-backed separatists and Ukrainian government soldiers, Russia has begun gathering troops, including elite forces, near the Ukraine border. “Deployment has been covert, often taking place at night,” reported Bloomberg.

Vladimir Putin has “massed at least 90,000 troops” near the border, “including well-trained battle groups that could be sent into action at short notice”, The Times said.

Joe Biden discussed the situation with Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, at the White House last month. Kamala Harris, the US vice president, also raised concerns with Emmanuel Macron during her most recent visit to France.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in December that Washington knows Putin’s “playbook”, adding that Moscow “may make the serious mistake of attempting to rehash what it undertook back in 2014”.

The Kremlin, however, warned that the deployment of American weapons and advisers would heighten tensions.

Andrei Kartapolov, head of the Russian parliament’s defence committee, said “all US efforts to ‘help’ Ukraine are leading it to the abyss”, The Times reported. The government in Kiev should not forget Washington’s “reckless adventure” in Afghanistan, he added.

‘Muscle-flexing’

Tensions have been growing for months. In April, amid a crackdown on pro-Russian media and politicians in Ukraine, Moscow built up its military presence in southwestern Russia, “stoking fears of renewed hostilities”, The Telegraph reported at the time.

The deployment included military units, tanks and heavy artillery which sent Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into a “frantic round of diplomatic activity”, The Guardian said. This included calling for Nato to fast-track the country’s application for membership of the alliance.

The “large-scale and ostentatious” arrival of troops came at a time when the situation in Donbass in eastern Ukraine, where demonstrations by pro-Russian and anti-government groups first broke out in 2014, had grown increasingly “volatile”, said The Moscow Times.

A ceasefire signed in 2015 had “effectively broken down”, the paper added, with both sides “accusing each other of provocations and regularly exchanging fire”, causing rising casualties among both military personnel and civilians.

In March, four Ukrainian troops were killed on one day in the biggest escalation since the summer of 2020. However, the “scale” of the April military manoeuvres “prompted Ukrainian officials to speak about a potential large-scale invasion”, The Telegraph said.

Ukraine’s military intelligence “publicly warned about the danger of an incursion”, the paper added, with President Zelensky accusing Moscow of “muscle-flexing”.

Russia did not deny the troop movements at the time, but a spokesperson for the Kremlin insisted it was “not threatening anyone”, said The Guardian. Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the nation’s military would do whatever necessary “to ensure our country’s security”, added The Telegraph.

Officials in Kiev hope that formalising Ukraine’s relationship with Nato will deter Russian military intervention as it would draw other powerful western militaries into the dispute.

Nato sources told The Guardian in April that members were monitoring Russia’s military build-up, but said that Ukraine would need to “focus on domestic reforms” and “develop its defence capabilities in accordance with Nato standards” in order to become a member.

Second coming?

In the wake of Russia’s manoeuvres in April, The Guardian said analysts were“concerned about the scale of the posturing at a time of increased tensions between Moscow and Washington”.

Dr Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the paper that the build-up may be “more serious than just a show of strength”, adding: “I don’t think we can rule out anything at this point.”

Writing on Politico, Steven Pifer, a former US ambassador to Ukraine, said that the movement of troops towards the Crimean Peninsula is “most likely” part of a “ploy to unnerve the government in Kyiv and test the West’s reaction”.

But Pifer continued that “it could be something worse”, adding that “a Russian strike would plunge Europe into a major crisis” meaning “the West should ensure that Putin and the Kremlin understand the potential costs if Russian units move against Ukraine”.

In October, amid a worldwide gas shortage, it emerged that the UK had entered arms talks with Ukraine for the first time. Some experts speculated that the move was a result of fears in Westminster over a second attack by Russia on Ukrainian territory.

April’s build-up also came at a time when Zelensky’s position was “weakening” at home, The Moscow Times said. Despite an impressive showing in the 2019 election, “meager progress” in negotiations with Russia over the Donbass region and “economic woes” exacerbated by the pandemic had all weakened his hand, the site added.

According to BBC Moscow correspondent Steve Rosenberg, the massing of troops could be an example of Putin’s “coercive diplomacy” intended to “extract concessions and security guarantees from Washington without the need for war”.

But “the annexation of Crimea proved popular with the Russian public”, he added, suggesting it could be a ploy to boost the president’s stalling approval ratings at home.

Deploying military force against Ukraine to bolster his stability could, however, be a risky move that may mark the beginning of his “downfall”, academic and Ukraine expert Taras Kuzio warned.

Writing on the Atlantic Council, he said that Putin “has succeeded in attracting the world’s attention by concentrating a vast invasion force along his country’s border with Ukraine and issuing a series of ultimatums to Western leaders”.

But whether he is “really prepared to unleash a major war in the heart of Europe” remains an open question given a lack of clarity around how the Russian public would “respond to a major escalation in the country’s eight-year undeclared war”.