Victory for Move Forward: what ‘political earthquake’ means for Thailand

Voters in Thailand have rejected military rule in favour of the reformist opposition following nine years under a prime minister who took power in a coup.

Early results from Sunday’s general election showed the Move Forward Party “exceeding every prediction” to win 151 of the 500 seats in the lower house, said the BBC’s South East Asia correspondent Jonathan Head. The “stunning” victory put Move Forward ten seats in front of the populist Pheu Thai Party and far ahead of nationalist former army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha, who came to power in 2014.

Analysts described the result as a “political earthquake”, according to Head, but what happens next is less certain.

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‘Change narrative’

The election was the “latest bout in a long-running battle for power” between the original favourites Pheu Thai, led by the daughter of billionaire former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, and a “nexus of old money, conservatives and military”, said Channel News Asia (CNA).

Move Forward’s victory at the polls followed “a campaign pitting a young generation yearning for change against the conservative elite” embodied by Chan-ocha, said the Bangkok Post.

“Thais – young and old alike – turned up in huge numbers to cast their ballots, with many in the capital saying they were voting for change,” said Al Jazeera. By midday on Sunday, officials at several polling stations in Bangkok reportedly said that “more than half of those eligible had braved the sweltering heat to cast their ballots”.

The surge in support for Move Forward “indicates a shift towards charismatic individuals who are social media savvy, and critical of the strait-laced, corruption-riddled military leaders”, wrote Antonio Rappa, an associate professor at the Singapore University of Social Sciences, for CNA.

The pro-democracy party “seeks to diminish the military’s political role” and amend Thailand’s “stringent law” on royal defamation, “which critics claim suppresses dissent”, said Bangkok-based news site Thaiger.

This “change narrative”, said South China Morning Post, apparently “cut through beyond their youth base”.

Coup or court order?

Voters have “delivered a vocal call for change by overwhelmingly voting to reject military-backed parties”, said CNN, yet it’s “not clear who will take power”.

Pheu Thai, the second-largest party, has agreed to join Move Forward and four smaller opposition parties, “giving them a coalition of more than 60% of seats in the new parliament”, the BBC’s Head reported.

But as Thaiger pointed out, “complex parliamentary rules” established after the 2014 coup “pose challenges to the opposition parties”, who will “need to negotiate deals and secure support from various factions”, including the “junta-appointed” Senate members who have “historically allied with military parties”.

These senators will vote on the appointment of the next prime minister and the formation of the upcoming administration.

In a “kingdom where coups and court orders have often trumped the ballot box”, said the Bangkok Post, young voters fear Sunday’s result “may yet be thwarted”.

Early signs point to a court order being a more likely tactic than another coup. “Accusations of vote-buying, including in Bangkok, are already being levelled apparently against Move Forward and likely other parties”, said Asia Times. It could take the Election Commission “months to adjudicate before announcing final results”.

The ”overwhelming result” of this election will be “much more difficult to manipulate without an outright dissolution of Move Forward”, a move that would “explode Thailand’s credibility as a democracy” and almost “inevitably lead to vigorous pro-democracy street protests”, the site added.

But according to the Bangkok Post, “rumours are already swirling” that Move Forward may be dissolved by court order, the “same fate that befell its predecessor Future Forward Party after it performed unexpectedly well at the 2019 elections”.