What might a Trump victory mean for the global economy?

A second term in office for the 'America First' administration would send shockwaves far beyond the United States' shores

Illustration of a globe sliced in half to reveal a quarter dollar coin
Trump's 'fondness for tariffs,' a sentiment which 'most economists do not share,' would be particularly harmful internationally, CNN said
(Image credit: Illustration by Stephen Kelly / Shutterstock / Getty Images)

Though he rails against "globalists" and insists that his is an "America First" platform, Donald Trump — like the rest of us — very much lives in an interconnected world. Here, the actions of a single nation are inextricably bound together with other countries in ways both obvious and subtle. Trump likes to insist that other world leaders are salivating for the supposed global stability that would accompany his return to the White House in 2025, the truth of the matter is decidedly more complicated. As domestic economists debate the impact of the Trump campaign's promise to levy extraordinary tariffs on all imported goods, international analysts are busy with their own calculations to determine the complex and cascading effects of a potential second Trump administration on global markets.

For his part, Trump has been characteristically fluid about the details of his economic plans, offering a host of broad and disparate recommendations largely featuring intense deregulation, lowered corporate tax rates, and the "most beautiful word in the dictionary": tariffs. Nevertheless, the prevailing sentiment among those who make it their business to understand the nebulous world of nation-level finances is that a Trump economy would "lead to higher prices, larger deficits, and greater inequality" domestically, a group of 23 Nobel Prize-winning economists said in an open letter backing Vice President Kamala Harris' domestic economic plan.

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Rafi Schwartz, The Week US

Rafi Schwartz has worked as a politics writer at The Week since 2022, where he covers elections, Congress and the White House. He was previously a contributing writer with Mic focusing largely on politics, a senior writer with Splinter News, a staff writer for Fusion's news lab, and the managing editor of Heeb Magazine, a Jewish life and culture publication. Rafi's work has appeared in Rolling Stone, GOOD and The Forward, among others.