What could we expect from a second Donald Trump term?
A win in November could usher in a radical re-shaping of American government or an end to US democracy as we know it — with huge consequences in the US and abroad
There's an irony of sorts in Donald Trump retaining his "Make America Great Again" slogan in his third run for the presidency. Is he referring to a long-distant past of allegedly halcyon patriotism? Does he want a return to the authoritarian days of his first administration? Could he be content to let his supporters fill in their own ideas of when America was ostensibly "great," so long as they give him their votes, and their money? The truth is likely somewhere in the middle.
For all the nostalgic vagueness inherent in his now-infamous political mantra, there is no question Trump does indeed have concrete plans to achieve his sense of future "greatness" for the country. For as much as he's played fast and loose with specific policy details (to say nothing of follow-through), the once-and-potentially-future president has been clear in articulating the broad thrusts of a second Trump administration. And with just days to go before polls close on election night, the picture Trump has painted of his potential return to office is one of increasing authoritarianism and bristling isolationism.
Here's what we can expect from a second Trump White House.
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What is on his domestic agenda?
Trump has been releasing policy papers and videos on what he calls "Agenda 47" for months, and he and his advisers are "openly bragging about their radical plans for a second term," said New York magazine, many of which are "surprisingly extreme, draconian and weird, even for him." As Trump himself has claimed, and since reiterated, he plans to be a "dictator" — but only on his first day back in office.
He has promised to bring independent regulatory agencies overseeing trade, media and finance under presidential authority, reclaim the president's impoundment power effectively allowing him to withhold funds and bypass Congress, and purge and politicize the civil service. He has made a point of attacking the independence of the Federal Reserve, claiming he "understands monetary policy better than Fed Chair Jerome Powell," Bloomberg said. While "impairing the Fed's credibility wouldn’t trouble Trump in the least," the voting public "should indeed be troubled."
Installing thousands of loyalists throughout the federal government will help him "take revenge on his enemies," said Rolling Stone, appointing an attorney general whose main job would be to go after anyone he feels has wronged him — from Joe Biden down.
His administration is open to letting states monitor pregnancies and prosecute women who get abortions. The New York Times reported Trump is making plans to enact mass deportations involving scouring the country for undocumented immigrants, detaining them in massive new camps, and swiftly expelling them. Rolling Stone said this would extend a "historic power grab" to legally enable the deployment of U.S. troops "to carry out roles currently prohibited under federal law — including the arrest, detention, and transport of migrants at the southern border." Trump has also introduced the possibility of deploying military forces to target his domestic opponents — the "enemy within" — with alumni from his first administration affirming that he could very well do so.
Axios reported that Trump's Justice Department would "push to eliminate or upend programs in government and corporate America that are designed to counter racism that has favored whites," effectively reinterpreting Civil Rights-era laws and other measures aimed at promoting racial equality.
Many of these policies are contained within Project 2025, a controversial document co-authored by more than 100 conservative organizations. It sets out four main aims: restore the family as the centerpiece of American life; dismantle the administrative state; defend the nation's sovereignty and borders; and secure God-given individual rights to live freely.
Unpopular with the U.S. public at large, Trump has "distanced himself" from the proposals, despite a host of former advisers being contributors and his own vice-presidential running mate, J.D. Vance, writing the foreword.
And abroad?
Facing a "maelstrom of woes," including the war in Ukraine and crisis in the Middle East, "one prospect frightens European policymakers more than anything else: the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency," said the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The think tank has set out a series of "scary policy scenarios" for a Trump second term. These include a Minsk 3.0 agreement in Ukraine making good on his promise to "end the war in 24 hours" by offering huge concessions to Vladimir Putin. A "crisis in the South China Sea" where a Trump administration ratchets up its rhetoric against Beijing, risking open conflict and a damaging trade war between the world's biggest economies. His move for "total energy dominance" that would link efforts to "inspire an American economic and manufacturing renaissance with U.S. foreign policy goals." And he could carry through on his threat to pull the U.S. out of Nato entirely, with devastating consequences for European security, while pursuing a "Making Israel great again" policy in the Middle East.
These scenarios would represent the "biggest test in transatlantic relations in postwar history," said Politico, and pose an "existential risk to European unity as the tensions over how to work with the world's most powerful country pull the continent apart on issues ranging from trade policy to the fight against climate change to the defense of European territory."
Every election is billed as a national turning point, but this time that might genuinely be the case.
To his supporters, the prospect of Trump 2.0, "unconstrained and backed by a disciplined movement of true believers, offers revolutionary promise." To the rest of the U.S. and much of the world, it represents an "alarming risk" which could bring about "the birth of a new kind of authoritarian presidential order."
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