Biden's Iran miscalculation
Iran officially has a president-elect, Ebrahim Raisi, who will be sworn in Thursday. Raisi replaces outgoing President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate first elected in 2013 to succeed Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, the hardliner who first came to many Americans' attention in 2007. That's when he spoke at Columbia University, expressing skepticism of the history of the Holocaust and insisting Iran doesn't "have homosexuals." On the scale of Rouhani to Ahmedinejad, Raisi is closer to the latter.
His distance from Rouhani is particularly important on the subject of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal. Rouhani presided over the deal's creation during the Obama administration and attempted to negotiate with the Trump and Biden administrations to restore U.S. participation in the pact after then-President Donald Trump withdrew in 2018. Raisi — who is personally sanctioned by Washington for his alleged involvement in the execution of thousands of political prisoners in the late 1980s — says he'll negotiate, too, but he's expected to be comparatively uncompromising.
None of this is news for President Biden and his team. Raisi was elected in June in a race generally thought to be designed for his victory. This administration knew Raisi was coming. So why did they wait? Why didn't they rejoin the Iran deal while Rouhani was the man on the other side of the table?
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Restoring the JCPOA was a key Biden campaign promise, and the administration's foot-dragging has likely made it more difficult — perhaps even impossible — to fulfill. Immediately after Biden's inauguration, the Rouhani government proposed a simultaneous Iran-U.S. return to JCPOA compliance, a way for both governments to get a diplomatic win while saving face. Biden declined. Does he imagine Raisi will be equally accommodating?
There's one more way in which Biden's delay on this issue is unfortunate. I don't want to be simplistic here, but Iran's elections are much quicker than ours. The list of approved candidates was released in late May — months after Biden had rejected the simultaneous return plan. It'd be naïve to think U.S.-Iran relations were the only factor in Raisi's selection, but it would also be naïve to think they were irrelevant. If the moderate Rouhani had been able to restore the deal in February, would a hardliner like Raisi have been the favorite come May? We'll never be able to say with certainty, but we can be pretty sure diplomacy will be more difficult going forward.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Bonnie Kristian was a deputy editor and acting editor-in-chief of TheWeek.com. She is a columnist at Christianity Today and author of Untrustworthy: The Knowledge Crisis Breaking Our Brains, Polluting Our Politics, and Corrupting Christian Community (forthcoming 2022) and A Flexible Faith: Rethinking What It Means to Follow Jesus Today (2018). Her writing has also appeared at Time Magazine, CNN, USA Today, Newsweek, the Los Angeles Times, and The American Conservative, among other outlets.
-
'Biden is smart to keep the border-security pressure on'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Bird flu worries mount as virus found in milk, cows
Speed Read The FDA found traces of the virus in pasteurized grocery store milk
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Palazzo Durazzo Suites in Genoa: a palatial gem in northern Italy
The Week Recommends Live your Italian dream in this astonishing and recently restored palace in the heart of the city
By Nick Hendry Published
-
Is the Supreme Court about to criminalize homelessness?
Talking Points The court will decide if bans on outdoor camping are 'cruel and unusual'
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Myanmar: the Spring Revolution and the downfall of the generals
Talking Point An armed protest movement has swept across the country since the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi was overthrown in 2021
By The Week Staff Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
It's not really about Biden's brain — unless it is
Talking Points Depending on who you ask, the renewed focus on the president's mental acuity is an election-year distraction, a legitimate point of concern, and sometimes both
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
The politics of music: should political rallies use well-known songs?
Talking Point The Smiths star Johnny Marr is latest musician to object to use of his music at a Donald Trump rally
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published