The census is about to set our politics on fire


Get ready for a new round of "white replacement" tirades from Tucker Carlson.
The Washington Post reports that when the first demographic breakdowns from the 2020 census are officially unveiled later this week, they'll show that the number of white people in the country is shrinking. White people will still command a majority, but by thinning margins — making up less than 60 percent of the population, and composing less than half of the under-18 population. By 2045, it's expected that whites will lose their majority status altogether.
The news is likely to have terrible effects on our politics.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
It's not a new observation that the dwindling power of white Americans has driven the anti-democratic radicalization of the Republican Party. Conservatives' recent fascination with Viktor Orbán's rule in Hungary can be explained, in part, by that country's ethnic homogeneity, as well as Orbán's fierce efforts to maintain it by crusading against immigrants from Asia and Africa. Donald Trump's rise was enabled by right-wing intellectuals who lamented that "the ceaseless importation of Third World foreigners" made the country "less traditionally American with every cycle."
"Every time they import a new voter, I become disenfranchised as a current voter," Carlson grumbled on his Fox News show in April.
But immigration doesn't explain why the number of white people is getting smaller. One demographer told the Post the phenomenon has been accelerated both by the opioid epidemic and lower-than-expected birth rates among millennials following the Great Recession. The latter development, of course, has also sparked angry culture war posturing by Republican politicians.
To the extent that these developments are rooted in despair and economic hopelessness — and not, say, the predictable effects of affluence — Democrats and Republicans both should be prepared to offer solutions. (Democrats are already arguably doing their part, with tax credit payments to parents, and by driving the new infrastructure bill that should create a ton of new jobs for workers of all races.) If recent history tells us anything, though, it's that the census news will create a fresh wave of right-wing anger, and that much of it will be directed against America's minority populations. Our ugly politics are probably going to get uglier.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joel Mathis is a writer with 30 years of newspaper and online journalism experience. His work also regularly appears in National Geographic and The Kansas City Star. His awards include best online commentary at the Online News Association and (twice) at the City and Regional Magazine Association.
-
Quiz of The Week: 21 – 27 June
Have you been paying attention to The Week's news?
-
The Week Unwrapped: How do you turn plastics into paracetamol?
Podcast Plus, what is the Wagner Group doing now? And why is it so hard to find a job after university?
-
The week's best photos
In Pictures A daring leap, a plastic protest, and more
-
How Zohran Mamdani's NYC mayoral run will change the Democratic Party
Talking Points The candidate poses a challenge to the party's 'dinosaur wing'
-
Is Trump's military parade 'just a parade'?
Talking Point Critics see an 'echo of authoritarianism'
-
Is Trump's LA troop deployment about order or authoritarianism?
Talking Points President: 'We're going to have troops everywhere.'
-
Is Trump trying to take over Congress?
Talking Points Separation of powers at stake in Library of Congress fight
-
The anger fueling the Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez barnstorming tour
Talking Points The duo is drawing big anti-Trump crowds in red states
-
Why the GOP is nervous about Ken Paxton's Senate run
Today's Big Question A MAGA-establishment battle with John Cornyn will be costly
-
Bombs or talks: What's next in the US-Iran showdown?
Talking Points US gives Tehran a two-month deadline to deal
-
The JFK files: the truth at last?
In The Spotlight More than 64,000 previously classified documents relating the 1963 assassination of John F. Kennedy have been released by the Trump administration