With U.S. forces set to be fully withdrawn from Afghanistan by the end of the month, President Biden better be preparing for the political blowback from presiding over the ugliest American military defeat since the Vietnam War drew to an ignominious close.
The parallel goes far beyond what seemed probable just a couple of months ago, when it looked like withdrawal would produce an intensification of the ongoing civil war between the U.S.-backed government and Taliban insurgents. Today the situation appears much more dire, with the Taliban making significant territorial gains even before our exit has been completed and American intelligence now predicting the capital of Afghanistan "could be overrun within six to 12 months of the U.S. military departing." That could portend scenes of officials and troops stationed at the American embassy in Kabul fleeing before advancing enemy forces, just as they did with the fall of Saigon in April 1975.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
That's going to be bad, but just how bad will depend on other considerations. If Biden seems weak on other issues, the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban will serve as vivid confirmation of his administration's fecklessness. But if he's proven effective in getting key parts of his agenda through a narrowly divided Congress, then it's possible that most Americans will withhold blame for the chaos in Kabul.
No one will be happy to see theocratic barbarians rout a military we trained for two decades at a cost of more than two thousand lives and two trillion dollars. Yet the very fact of that outcome will serve as powerful confirmation that Biden's (and Trump's) instincts were correct: The mission couldn't be accomplished, which means the mission had to be abandoned.
If Biden can make that case cogently, he may be able to ride out the coming storm without a scratch.
-
Quiz of The Week: 15 – 21 NovemberQuiz Have you been paying attention to The Week’s news?
-
Can the UK do more on climate change?Today's Big Question Labour has shown leadership in the face of fraying international consensus, but must show the public their green mission is ‘a net benefit, not a net cost’
-
The Week Unwrapped: Will US Catholics rebel against the Pope?Podcast Plus what are the ethics of freezing your late partner?
-
Will California tax its billionaires?Talking Points A proposed one-time levy would shore up education and Medicaid
-
A free speech debate is raging over sign language at the White HouseTalking Points The administration has been accused of excluding deaf Americans from press briefings
-
Is Trump a lame duck president?Talking Points Republicans are considering a post-Trump future
-
Has Zohran Mamdani shown the Democrats how to win again?Today’s Big Question New York City mayoral election touted as victory for left-wing populists but moderate centrist wins elsewhere present more complex path for Democratic Party
-
Nick Fuentes’ Groyper antisemitism is splitting the rightTalking Points Interview with Tucker Carlson draws conservative backlash
-
Is Mike Johnson rendering the House ‘irrelevant’?Talking Points Speaker has put the House on indefinite hiatus
-
Will Republicans kill the filibuster to end the shutdown?Talking Points GOP officials contemplate the ‘nuclear option’
-
Millions turn out for anti-Trump ‘No Kings’ ralliesSpeed Read An estimated 7 million people participated, 2 million more than at the first ‘No Kings’ protest in June
