Will abortion on the ballot in today's elections be a bellwether for 2024?
Reproductive rights fights in Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania could be a sign of things to come
It's been just under a year and a half since the United States Supreme Court rolled back the federal right to reproductive healthcare in its landmark Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, ending half a century of government-protected abortion access established under 1973's Roe v. Wade ruling. In that time, the political ground has shifted somewhat, with Republicans underperforming in the 2022 midterms to gain narrow control of the House of Representatives, even as Democrats solidified their Senate majority — a sign that blowback from the conservative push to restrict federal abortion access may have hindered the GOP's electoral aspirations across the country.
But If the results of the 2022 midterms were indeed impacted by that year's SCOTUS bombshell ruling, where does that leave voters in 2023? Questions about abortion access are once again playing a central role in today's off-season elections in states like Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, showcasing "the effectiveness of both parties’ approaches," The New York Times reported. Will the fallout from Dobbs continue to animate Democrats, or can Republicans regain the momentum that brought them to this moment to begin with? And throughout it all, what will today's election results mean as the nation braces itself for 2024, and a potential rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump? Whether an explicit ballot measure, as in Ohio, or simply a rhetorical cudgel to frame political opponents as extremists as both Democrats and Republicans have done elsewhere, the fight over abortion rights continues to play out today at polling places across the country — and could be a sign of things to come ahead of next year's general election.
What the commentators said
Tuesday's races will show "how powerful the issue still is" and will not only have major implications for abortion access but for how Republicans will "navigate this critical issue ahead of 2024" according to The Daily Beast. The outcome will either show that abortion remains a major motivator for Democrats, or, in what is "perhaps the current operating assumption" among some GOP campaigns, will show that the issue has "faded enough from voters’ minds" that Republicans can move on to other topics.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Abortion remains a "very, very powerful" stimulant for Democrats, as well as a "very fruitful persuasion issue for swing voters," Democratic pollster Angela Kuefler told The New York Times. The open question for both parties is "how far into conservative areas Democrats’ arguments will be effective" and what, if anything, Republicans can do to counter that push. In Virginia, for instance, where Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin has been stymied by Democrats' narrow state Senate majority, conservatives have focused on flipping that chamber in part by framing a proposed ban on abortions after 15 weeks as something "where Virginians come together around reasonableness," Youngkin told ABC's This Week. The goal is to "prove there is a middle ground that is enough to keep the GOP’s anti-abortion base on board while also winning enough votes from abortion rights supporters who are open to some restrictions," explained CNN's John King, describing Youngkin's campaign rallies as looking "very much like a presidential test run."
Pennsylvania's race between Republican Carolyn Carluccio and Democrat Dan McCaffery for a vacant state Supreme Court seat has also been defined in no small part by questions about abortion access. While Carluccio has "insisted that abortion law in Pennsylvania is settled" she has also "received the backing of several anti-abortion groups in the state," The Hill reported. McCaffery, meanwhile "has touted his endorsement from Planned Parenthood."
What next?
Of all the states holding elections this week, Ohio is the only place where abortion access itself is on the ballot, with an amendment for voters to "decide whether to enshrine reproductive rights in their state Constitution," according to the Associated Press. Ohio is "the most conservative state to date where we're pushing for proactive state constitutional amendments," ACLU strategist Carolyn Ehrlich told the outlet, even as anti-abortion organizers look to 2022 to "apply those weapons and learning in other states going forward," SBA Pro-Life America state public affairs director Kelsey Pritchard explained.
In Virginia, however, lessons from this week's election may be more "difficult to untangle," GOP consultant Brian Robinson told NPR. Unlike Ohio, "this is not a referendum."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Rafi Schwartz has worked as a politics writer at The Week since 2022, where he covers elections, Congress and the White House. He was previously a contributing writer with Mic focusing largely on politics, a senior writer with Splinter News, a staff writer for Fusion's news lab, and the managing editor of Heeb Magazine, a Jewish life and culture publication. Rafi's work has appeared in Rolling Stone, GOOD and The Forward, among others.
-
Women are getting their own baseball league again
In the Spotlight The league is on track to debut in 2026
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Giant TVs are becoming the next big retail commodity
Under the Radar Some manufacturers are introducing TVs over 8 feet long
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
When will mortgage rates finally start coming down?
The Explainer Much to potential homebuyers' chagrin, mortgage rates are still elevated
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Published
-
'It may not be surprising that creative work is used without permission'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
What message is Trump sending with his Cabinet picks?
TODAY'S BIG QUESTION By nominating high-profile loyalists like Matt Gaetz and RFK Jr., is Trump serious about creating a functioning Cabinet, or does he have a different plan in mind?
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Wyoming judge strikes down abortion, pill bans
Speed Read The judge said the laws — one of which was a first-in-the-nation prohibition on the use of medication to end pregnancy — violated the state's constitution
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
What Mike Huckabee means for US-Israel relations
In the Spotlight Some observers are worried that the conservative evangelical minister could be a destabilizing influence on an already volatile region
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Can Europe pick up the slack in Ukraine?
Today's Big Question Trump's election raises questions about what's next in the war
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
What does the G20 summit say about the new global order?
Today's Big Question Donald Trump's election ushers in era of 'transactional' geopolitics that threatens to undermine international consensus
By Elliott Goat, The Week UK Published
-
'Paraguay has found itself in a key position'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Will Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?
Today's Big Question An 'unprecedented legal battle' could decide the economy's future
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published