Will abortion on the ballot in today's elections be a bellwether for 2024?

Reproductive rights fights in Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania could be a sign of things to come

Diagram of a uterus covered in voting badges
(Image credit: Illustrated / Getty Images)

It's been just under a year and a half since the United States Supreme Court rolled back the federal right to reproductive healthcare in its landmark Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, ending half a century of government-protected abortion access established under 1973's Roe v. Wade ruling. In that time, the political ground has shifted somewhat, with Republicans underperforming in the 2022 midterms to gain narrow control of the House of Representatives, even as Democrats solidified their Senate majority — a sign that blowback from the conservative push to restrict federal abortion access may have hindered the GOP's electoral aspirations across the country. 

But If the results of the 2022 midterms were indeed impacted by that year's SCOTUS bombshell ruling, where does that leave voters in 2023? Questions about abortion access are once again playing a central role in today's off-season elections in states like Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, showcasing "the effectiveness of both parties’ approaches," The New York Times reported. Will the fallout from Dobbs continue to animate Democrats, or can Republicans regain the momentum that brought them to this moment to begin with?  And throughout it all, what will today's election results mean as the nation braces itself for 2024, and a potential rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump? Whether an explicit ballot measure, as in Ohio, or simply a rhetorical cudgel to frame political opponents as extremists as both Democrats and Republicans have done elsewhere, the fight over abortion rights continues to play out today at polling places across the country — and could be a sign of things to come ahead of next year's general election. 

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Rafi Schwartz, The Week US

Rafi Schwartz has worked as a politics writer at The Week since 2022, where he covers elections, Congress and the White House. He was previously a contributing writer with Mic focusing largely on politics, a senior writer with Splinter News, a staff writer for Fusion's news lab, and the managing editor of Heeb Magazine, a Jewish life and culture publication. Rafi's work has appeared in Rolling Stone, GOOD and The Forward, among others.