Will Aukus pact survive a second Trump presidency?
US, UK and Australia seek to expand 'game-changer' defence partnership ahead of Republican's possible return to White House
David Cameron has said that Aukus and Nato must get into the "best possible shape" to face Donald Trump's potential return to the White House.
Speaking after talks with his counterparts in Australia, the foreign secretary appeared to "implicitly acknowledge" the risks that a second Trump presidency might pose to the Western defence partnerships, said The Guardian.
"What we will do, as I am sure an Australian government would do, is work with whoever becomes the president," Cameron told reporters in Adelaide. "The best thing we can do is to get those alliances, to get those projects into the best possible shape, so whoever is the new president can see that they are working with a very successful set of arrangements." Cameron's comments were endorsed by the Australian deputy prime minister and defence minister.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
What did the commentators say?
Trump hasn't openly expressed hostility to the Aukus deal, but his scepticism towards Nato is well known. He called nations that did not meet the 2% GDP defence spending commitment "delinquent" in a speech in February. And with the former president doubling down on his "America First rhetoric" in his campaign for re-election, many believe he "may adopt a more isolationist foreign policy position" if he wins November's election, said Politico.
The return of American isolationism "is a risk to the Indo-Pacific", an unnamed diplomat reportedly said. And "there will be a moment, if Trump wins, where Western leaders will phone each other up and ask: 'What the fuck are we going to do now?'"
The UK, US and Australia are "rushing" to sign up new partners to their Aukus partnership while the White House is "still occupied by an administration that favours the pact", said the news site.
Japan and Canada could be in line to join the so-called "pillar 2" of the Aukus agreement, which will see allied nations collaborate on military technology in areas such as artificial intelligence and hypersonic missiles.
But Aukus could be something that Trump quietly supports, said foreign affairs researcher Patrick Triglavcanin on The Interpreter. The pact is more concerned with countering the influence of China – rather than Russia – as it seeks to maintain a "rules-based order" in the Indo-Pacific.
Trump may be "unpredictable", but "one can assume he would support two of America's closest allies up-skilling their capabilities", especially when they are "aimed at the state Trump seems more concerned about", said Triglavcanin. And the pact is "certainly a demonstration" that the three nations "want to pull their weight" in the region.
Aukus is "understood to be a game-changer", said Professor John Blaxland, from the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University, on The Conversation. And Democrat and Republican political leaders in Washington are aware of that.
Australia benefits from US technology "in bolstering its military and intelligence capabilities" and reducing the country's fears of being left vulnerable. At the same time, the US can keep an eye on security in East Asia using facilities there, helping to deter threats and protect its interests.
And while Trump has been critical of Nato, he has "broadly avoided" attacking Australia. "There are no indications Trump is set to change that stance, and there are some compelling reasons for the next US administration to stay the course," said Blaxland.
What next?
Following this week's talks, the UK and Australia signed a defence and security treaty and announced a £2.4 billion Australian investment in Rolls-Royce's nuclear reactor facilities, "as the two nations tighten ties in the face of rising Chinese power", said the Financial Times.
Signed by Australia's Defence Minister Richard Marles and his UK counterpart Grant Shapps, the treaty "formalises consultation over national security matters between the two countries and makes it easier to operate together on joint exercises and maritime security", said the paper.
Shapps said meetings in January in the US had strengthened his confidence in the commitment to Aukus. "Republicans really like it. Democrats really like it. I think it's one of the least controversial items in US politics," he said.
But the pact remains "fiercely debated" in Canberra, said the FT, "especially with a US election looming that could have ramifications for Washington's foreign policy".
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Sorcha Bradley is a writer at The Week and a regular on “The Week Unwrapped” podcast. She worked at The Week magazine for a year and a half before taking up her current role with the digital team, where she mostly covers UK current affairs and politics. Before joining The Week, Sorcha worked at slow-news start-up Tortoise Media. She has also written for Sky News, The Sunday Times, the London Evening Standard and Grazia magazine, among other publications. She has a master’s in newspaper journalism from City, University of London, where she specialised in political journalism.
-
'Horror stories of women having to carry nonviable fetuses'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Haiti interim council, prime minister sworn in
Speed Read Prime Minister Ariel Henry resigns amid surging gang violence
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Today's political cartoons - April 26, 2024
Cartoons Friday's cartoons - teleprompter troubles, presidential immunity, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Haiti interim council, prime minister sworn in
Speed Read Prime Minister Ariel Henry resigns amid surging gang violence
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Is the Gaza war tearing US university campuses apart?
Today's Big Question Protests at Columbia University, other institutions, pit free speech against student safety
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Myanmar: the Spring Revolution and the downfall of the generals
Talking Point An armed protest movement has swept across the country since the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi was overthrown in 2021
By The Week Staff Published
-
Israel hits Iran with retaliatory airstrike
Speed Read The attack comes after Iran's drone and missile barrage last weekend
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Is there a peaceful way forward for Israel and Iran?
Today's Big Question Tehran has initially sought to downplay the latest Israeli missile strike on its territory
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
How could the Supreme Court's Fischer v. US case impact the other Jan 6. trials including Trump's?
Today's Big Question A former Pennsylvania cop might hold the key to a major upheaval in how the courts treat the Capitol riot — and its alleged instigator
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Is the next cold war a drone-swarm race between US and China?
Today's Big Question Both global superpowers are building up their capacity for surging robotic warfare. What happens next is anyone's guess.
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Sudan on brink of collapse after a year of war
Speed Read 18 million people face famine as the country continues its bloody downward spiral
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published