Democrats rally around election night victories

With just under a year to go before the 2024 general election, there is no poll, no crystal ball, and no tarot card flip that can accurately predict exactly what will happen when voters go to the polls 12 months from now. At best, all that politicians, pundits and prognosticators can do is look at where things stand now, and extrapolate how those trends will change — if at all — into the future. It's a volatile combination of art and science that can help frame expectations for what's to come, even as it fails at actually guaranteeing specific outcomes. 

Still, by just about any measure, Democrats worried about 2024 have reason to breathe slightly easier after polls closed on Tuesday, thanks to a string of resounding wins across Ohio, Virginia, and other states crucial to any general election campaign. As many observers predicted, blowback over last year's Supreme Court decision to end the federal right to abortion access has continued to haunt conservative candidates and causes, while energizing liberals as it did during the 2022 midterms. While Democrat victories weren't absolute — Mississippi Republican Gov. Tate Reeves handily won a second term over a strong challenge from Democrat Brandon Presley — Tuesday was nevertheless a "romp" and a sign of a "banner year" for the party, according to Politico.

Whether the left-leaning momentum will last through the coming year remains entirely to be seen. For now, however, both Democrats and Republicans alike are scrambling to understand what they did right — and wrong — as the 2024 election season kicks off in earnest. 

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'A powerful counterpoint to the party's doom-and-gloom'

While Democrats "probably won’t stop panicking about the 2024 election," The Washington Post's Aaron Blake said, "for now, they keep having good elections" regardless. Tuesday was "the latest of many post-2016 elections in which Democrats can come away feeling good," although whether that trend will continue through next year is unclear, with questions about "whether Republicans just don’t turn out when Trump isn’t on the ballot" potentially skewing any overarching takeaway from these off-season wins. Moreover, Democrat wins don't necessarily mean "Biden, with his various liabilities, will be able to take advantage" in his presidential campaign. 

Tuesday offered Democrats a "powerful counterpoint to the party's doom-and-gloom over the president's poll numbers," Politico reported, noting that even though the polls can't be entirely ignored, the wins "should prompt a rethinking of the current political moment." For Republicans, meanwhile, the approval of an amendment guaranteeing abortion access to Ohio's state constitution coupled with a widespread rejection of Virginia Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin's proposed 15-week abortion ban, shows that "even in red states" reproductive rights are a popular issued that "Republicans must navigate if they are to win in 2024," Fox News columnist Liz Peek wrote. 

In particular, yesterday's election was a "disaster" for Youngkin, who "put more than $14 million and a giant chunk of his political capital on the line" only to see Democrats hold the Virginia Senate, and win a majority in the House, "likely quieting all but the most desperate calls" for the rising Republican star to join the 2024 presidential race, The Dispatch reported. 

Not 'out of the woods yet'

Ultimately it's hard to "square results in an off-year election with how voters will behave in 2024" with two unpopular candidates — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump — at the top of the ticket, according to Forbes. Even buoyed by Tuesday's wins, Democrats who spoke with ABC News understand the results "don't mean they're out of the woods yet," even if the party "may not be in as dire straits as some had feared."

Democratic wins may have been "disappointing and ominous for the GOP, but the results last night are not reason for panic," the conservative National Review argued, pointing to a confluence of unique factors that will be less impactful in next year's general election. Former Republican Sen. Rick Santorum seemingly agreed, telling Newsmax that Democrats won in part thanks to "very sexy things like abortion and marijuana on the ballot." Lauding the fact that "most of the states in this country don't allow you to put everything on the ballot," Santorum concluded that "pure democracies are not the way to run a country."