Will Rep. George Santos be fired before he can retire, after damning ethics report?

The House Ethics Committee on Thursday released a scathing report on Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), unanimously endorsing findings of "substantial evidence" he knowingly violated not just ethics guidelines and House rules but also committed crimes. Santos, who had maintained he would seek a second term despite facing 23 federal charges and his history of serial dishonesty, announced soon after the report's release that he would not be running for reelection in 2024. "House Republicans may boot the indicted New Yorker well before then," Politico reported. 

Santos has already survived two attempts to expel him from the House. But this time "some House Republicans already think they may be able to reach the two-thirds threshold for his removal, despite concerns over narrowing their already thin House majority," Politico said. It would take every Democrat and about 80 Republicans to give Santos the heave-ho. In the last attempt, 24 Republicans voted to oust him, 31 Democrats voted against, and 41 members didn't vote or voted "present." But now he has been given due process, those numbers have already shifted against Santos.

The 56-page report found that "Santos sought to fraudulently exploit every aspect of his House candidacy for his own personal financial profit," deceived donors and "blatantly stole from his campaign." He allegedly spent pilfered campaign funds on beach vacations, a Vegas honeymoon, shopping sprees at luxury stores, Botox, and the entrepreneurial porn site OnlyFans. The Ethics Committee said his conduct "warrants public condemnation, is beneath the dignity of the office, and has brought severe discredit upon the House."

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Still, only five other members of Congress have ever been expelled — two after criminal convictions and three for disloyalty during the Civil War. Some Republicans still say "Santos' criminal trial — set for September — should be allowed to play out" before an expulsion vote, while others are more "transparent" about the "raw political calculus" of losing a reliable GOP vote, Aaron Blake wrote at The Washington Post.

If Republicans do oust Santos, the math shows "they'll lose a colleague who didn't make a significant difference in voting this year anyway," the Post's Philip Bump countered. Ultimately, booting Santos would leave House Republicans with "a narrow majority and enormous difficulty in passing legislation. In other words, there won't be much of an effect at all."