Why the Hunter Biden verdict isn't the slam dunk Republicans have been calling for

Hunter Biden is hardly the first presidential relation to have their personal struggles and legal challenges turned into national news and fodder for their family's political opposition. Nevertheless, the younger Biden's three felony convictions this week are a particularly notable entry in the long history of first family challenges. It comes after years of conservatives pointing to both Hunter's history of addiction and various business dealings as evidence of his father's alleged — and to date unsubstantiated — criminality. That Hunter now potentially faces hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of fines and an extended prison sentence for having lied on federal firearm purchasing forms would presumably be occasion for celebration from the same Republicans who have long sought to prosecute the first family.

Hunter's conviction is a "step toward accountability" House Oversight and Accountability Chairman Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) said in a statement. Still, until the Justice Department pursues "everyone involved in the Bidens' corrupt influence peddling schemes," Comer said, "it will be clear department officials continue to cover for the Big Guy, Joe Biden."

Comer's heavily qualified approval offers a glimpse into how conservatives have responded to Hunter Biden's conviction — and highlights why this particular guilty verdict is not the political slam dunk many had hoped for. 

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'Deep State's sacrificial lamb'

For many of the GOP's most vocal Biden critics, Hunter's conviction is merely a distraction — or worse, a deliberately engineered diversion — from his family's allegedly more serious crimes. "Don't be gaslit," former top Trump administration adviser Stephen Miller said on X. The younger Biden's gun-related charges are merely a "giant misdirection," and an "easy op for DOJ to sell to a pliant media that is all too willing to be duped." In being convicted, Hunter "became the Deep State’s sacrificial lamb to show that Justice is 'balanced' while the other Biden crimes remain ignored," agreed Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).

Republican arguments that the DOJ "treated President Joe Biden's son with kid gloves while zealously prosecuting Trump" have been "hurt by the Biden-led Justice Department prosecuting the president's son," U.S. News and World Report said. In making the argument that the Biden DOJ is targeting political opponents, those same Republicans "may be trying to deflect from Trump's own stated intentions to wield the criminal justice system against opponents if he returns to the White House." Given that "truth rarely matters" in the Trump-era, and "inconvenient facts never [penetrate] the echo chamber that dominates Republican politics and conservative media," the former president's allies have used Biden's conviction to "conjure a new round of falsehoods and conspiracy theories," CNN's Stephen Collinson said. 

'Backfire in the court of public opinion'

Republicans "can't agree on how" to prevent Hunter Biden's convictions from "undermining their argument that the judicial system is being weaponized against Donald Trump," Politico said. In part, that's a byproduct of the nature of Biden's crimes themselves and the role his well-publicized drug use played in his criminal actions. Addiction is a topic "both sensitive and salient for millions of American families," ABC News said. Attacks on that front "could backfire in the court of public opinion" where Americans are "looking for leaders who sympathize and have solutions."

Moreover, the political realities of Biden's conviction for illegally purchasing and owning a firearm presented a unique dilemma for Republicans who, as a whole, "favor far more relaxed laws than Democrats," The Guardian said. However bad the verdict is for Hunter Biden himself, it's similarly "bad news for the Second Amendment," said Fox News' Greg Gutfeld. 

That the "prevailing reaction among Republicans" after Biden's convictions was "not so much hailing the verdict as claiming that this case was a smokescreen" suggests that the GOP understands that most voters "aren't particularly concerned about this case," The Washington Post said. Fervent MAGA Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) offered a similar, if blunter, assessment: 

At the same time, the Post said, there is still a risk that some may see Biden as "having gotten off somewhat easy." While his three counts carry up to 25 years of prison time, Biden, as a first-time offender, likely wouldn't get "anywhere near the maximum sentence," The Associated Press said.