India's Modi expected to win 3rd term with smaller majority

What happened

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was projected to win a rare third five-year term but with his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) holding a smaller-than-expected majority, or even a plurality, in Parliament, according to early results released Tuesday. Exit polls had shown the BJP winning more than the 272 seats needed for a majority. But Modi's National Democratic Alliance coalition was ahead in 294 districts — including just 241 for the BJP — while the center-left INDIA alliance, led by the once-dominant Congress party, was leading in 232.

Who said what

The BJP coalition won 353 seats in 2019 and "set a goal of winning 400" this year, Mujib Mashal said at The New York Times. The early results "suggest either that Modi's popularity" is waning or it "took his personal push" to help his unpopular party "scrape by." Modi switched from "touting his economic bona fides" to "attacking Muslims" to mobilize the BJP's Hindu nationalist base amid slumping turnout, The Wall Street Journal said. But calling Muslims "infiltrators" apparently "rubbed some voters the wrong way," even many Hindus. 

What next?

If the BJP falls short of 272 seats, Modi will "need to turn to junior partners" to form a government, but his two biggest partners "do not share the ruling party's Hindu-first agenda," said the Times. Having a "stronger opposition augurs very well for India's democracy that has taken a hit during Modi's 10-year rule," political analyst Rasheed Kidwai said to The Associated Press.

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