Is ditching Net Zero a Tory vote-winner?

"Net zero by 2050 is impossible," said Kemi Badenoch in her first big policy pitch to supporters since becoming Conservative leader. Britain simply doesn't have a workable plan to reach the emissions goal in the next quarter-century, and current policies will only drive up consumer energy costs.

The only way to regain the trust of lost voters is to tell the "unvarnished truth" on the matter, she said; net zero by 2050 "can't be achieved without a significant drop in our living standards or worse, by bankrupting us".

What did the commentators say?

Badenoch's pitch makes a "sharp break from years of political consensus on net zero", including from within her own party, said the BBC. The target was enshrined in law by former Conservative PM Theresa May in 2019. This legacy "does not appear to carry much political clout in 2025", said James Heale in The Spectator. Badenoch's calculation is that while Tory voters may profess support for green policies in the polls, in reality "they are much less willing to put their money where their mouth is". Just 5% would accept tax hikes for climate policies, according to research by think tank Onward. For Badenoch, climate change exists, "but tackling it is just one competing priority". Voters also want "cheap energy".

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Announcing such a "defensive" policy as her first big pitch suggests the Tories' priority is trying to "fight off the challenge from Nigel Farage" rather than "win the next election", said John Rentoul in The Independent.

But while Badenoch "seems to think she has lobbed a grenade into the sanctimonious eco-consensus", said Gawain Towler in CapX, in actual fact "it may be a dud". That's because Badenoch is merely "slowing the Net Zero train" while "Reform wants to turn it around" completely.

What next?

Badenoch's is an approach already tried by former Tory PM Rishi Sunak, said Stephen Bush in the Financial Times. His "soft-core climate denial", in which he "theoretically committed to meeting net zero targets" but with "watered down measures", ultimately failed.

Rather than risk "looking a bit mad" by railing against a target that still commands popular support, Badenoch would find more success "attacking Labour's incompetence" over failing to meet these targets over the course of the next parliament; a more likely scenario than this government suddenly becoming "known for its climate radicalism".