Is Rep. Steve Scalise's speaker bid already doomed to fail?

It's typically a sign of unity and cohesion when a political party with a congressional majority rallies to elect its nominee to become the next speaker of the House of Representatives. For the fractious and discordant Republican caucus of 2023, however, this week's election to nominate a replacement for the recently ousted Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was yet another opportunity to highlight the deep divisions that have defined the party's narrow majority for the past congressional session. 

When House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) emerged from his party's closed-door meeting on Tuesday as the GOP's pick to wield the speaker's gavel, he acknowledged that Republicans "still have work to do" while lauding his party's "resolve" to return to the House floor and restart the legislative process that's been stalled since McCarthy's ouster. 

"We need to make sure we're sending a message to people, all throughout the world, that the House is open and doing the people's business," Scalise continued in what may end up less a declaration of purpose than a plea to his Republican colleagues, 99 of whom had voted against his becoming speaker just minutes earlier.

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With a party struggling to flex its razor-thin majority, and the prospect of another government shutdown battle looming on the horizon, is Steve Scalise ready to assume one of the most powerful positions in the United States government, or is his plan to become speaker already showing signs of coming apart at the seams? 

What the commentators said

Scalise's speakership "woes are similar to McCarthy's — but worse," Punchbowl's Jake Sherman wrote on X, formerly Twitter. Flipping 107 votes to reach the magic number 217 is a "Sisyphean task" he continued in his newsletter, cautioning that the "stakes this time are higher, the time frame is shorter, the opposition is larger and the House Republican Conference is angrier." Scalise's hope that winning the party's nomination would induce Republican holdouts to come around is "simply not happening." Scalise was "telling people he could get 150 votes," former speaker McCarthy told Punchbowl's Mica Soellner, adding "he wasn’t there."

While some of those holdouts who voted for Donald Trump-endorsed Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) have since agreed to vote for Scalise when the full house meets to select a speaker, "the number who oppose him exceeds the number he can lose," CBS reported, citing at least 10 Republicans who have publicly declined to back Scalise. South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace was perhaps the most vocal in her opposition, raising Scalise's past associations with various racist movements in an interview with CNN, explaining that she could not "in good conscience vote for someone who attended a white supremacist conference and compared himself to David Duke." Mace also predicted that it would be "impossible for Steve Scalise to get to 217." 

Other Scalise opponents have raised concerns about his "leadership capabilities, his legislative strategy and even his health status as he battles blood cancer," according to The New York Times. More broadly, Scalise's struggles to secure the speakership may be a byproduct of the current mood within the Republican party where he, as current majority leader, is "seen as a member of the House GOP establishment in a party that lionizes outsiders and insurgents," CNN's Stephen Collinson reported. 

What next? 

While Scalise continues to whip support for the eventual House floor vote, "the only way [he] will win is by making concessions to the extremists and holdouts," Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) wrote on X, reminding people of McCarthy's "turbulent" speakership "the last time this happened." CNN's Collinson agreed, writing that Scalise risked "neutering his potential House speakership before it starts with concessions to extremists needed to win the gavel," just as McCarthy had before him. Initial hopes for a quick floor vote were stymied on Wednesday when interim speaker Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) put the House into recess shortly after the GOP caucus meeting concluded. 

Complicating matters further for Republicans is the prospect of a subordinate leadership battle in Scalise's wake; Republican Study Committee chair Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) and current party whip Tom Emmer (R-Mn.) have "begun vying for the job" of majority leader, now that Scalise seems precariously poised to vacate the role, Roll Call reported.