Could Israel's ultra-Orthodox conscription ruling hurt Netanyahu?

Israel's Supreme Court unanimously voted to start conscripting ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students into the Israeli military, a decision that could "lead to the collapse of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ruling coalition," The Washington Post said. 

Military service is mandatory for most Israelis once they are 18, but ultra-Orthodox Jews, also known as the Haredim, have been largely exempt since 1948. What was once a small group of a few hundred has blossomed into roughly 1.3 million, or nearly 13% of the population. The court had already struck down the exemption law that was applied to ultra-Orthodox students in 2017. Lawmakers tried to replace the law, but repeated court extensions and government interference "dragged out a resolution for years," said The Associated Press. In the absence of a replacement, the court ruled that the country's conscription laws applied to the ultra-Orthodox like any other citizen. 

Two ultra-Orthodox parties in Netanyahu's fragile coalition, Shas and United Torah Judaism, have expressed disappointment in the ruling. The Torah is Israel's "secret weapon against all enemies," and "no power in the world" can stop them from studying it, Shas chairman Aryeh Deri said. Neither party has flat-out said it was leaving, but the threat still lingers. Could the conscription ruling lead to Netanyahu's coalition and, in turn, the government falling apart?

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What did the commentators say?

While it's possible for the ultra-Orthodox parties to "bolt the coalition and vote with the opposition to disband the Knesset and force a new election," things don't seem to be going in that direction, Yaakov Katz, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute, said at Newsweek. The parties realize that if a new government is formed without them, they will "pray for the day when they were only being asked to draft 3,000 youth a year." If the ultra-Orthodox politicians choose to leave the coalition, a new government could "decide to draft all Haredi youth." By remaining in Netanyahu's governing group, the Haredi parties "hold sway over the coming legislation and can try and dilute the court's decision."

Netanyahu has "very little room for maneuver," and his best hope is that the parties realize that even without the service exemptions and funding for their yeshivot, they still have "unprecedented power and billions in funding for their narrow interests within the current coalition," said Anshel Pfeffer at Haaretz. "The next government will almost certainly be much less hospitable if it includes them at all." It is more likely that the parties will either "stay in the government, holding onto their valuable ministries and funding" or "continue supporting a minority Netanyahu government from outside the coalition, as long as they can continue to pillage the state budget." 

Another possibility is introducing a new Haredi exemption law, which is "unlikely to pass," Jonathan Strum said in The Hill. Many of Netanyahu's Likud Party members oppose such a law, and the "opposition would vote lockstep against it." Netanyahu would likely "slow-walk implementation of the court's order" and try to "soften the blow with increased subsidies or concessions in other areas."  

What next?

If the ruling is enforced, it will be challenging for the army to "integrate a larger number of ultra-Orthodox deeply opposed to service into its ranks," The Associated Press said. The court did not set a specific enlistment number in the ruling, but Israel's attorney general's office suggested that at least 3,000 ultra-Orthodox soldiers enlist in the next year. The court's ruling said around 63,000 ultra-Orthodox students are eligible for enlistment. Even if they did get them to enlist, the move would have "little immediate effect on the war in Gaza." The number would be "too small to have a significant impact on day-to-day fighting."

The Haredim will likely try to delay the law's implementation as they continue to pressure the government to pass a replacement exemption law. But the ruling also included a "means of pressuring the ultra-Orthodox to accept the court's judgment," said The New York Times. In addition to requiring enlistment, the ruling also suspends millions of dollars in government subsidies to the religious schools that previously supported the exempted students, "striking a blow to revered institutions at the heart of the ultra-Orthodox community."