Jan. 6 may be the ultimate electoral lightning rod

Three years and one day ago, a mob of flag-waving, slogan-chanting supporters of former President Donald Trump marched from the National Mall to the United States Capitol building, determined to disrupt the certification of Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 election after being assured by the outgoing president that the entire electoral process had been "rigged" against him. In the hours that followed, the throngs of Trump supporters — including organized contingents of various extremist groups — battled their way past Capitol Police officers into the building's inner chambers as news cameras and social media feeds broadcast the unprecedented chaos and violence in real-time. Since that day, Jan. 6 has become an inflection point in the public psyche, leading to a presidential impeachment, hundreds of indictments, a constitutional dilemma, and even a hit single on iTunes, as America came to see the Capitol insurrection as a singular event in the nation's history — for better (as many Trump supporters believed) or worse.

Now, with the third anniversary of Jan. 6 looming, and Biden and Trump poised for a rematch of their acrimonious 2020 race, both candidates are making a concerted effort to revisit the events of that day, stoking the memory of the insurrection to galvanize voters and present the stakes of the upcoming presidential election. In speeches and ads alike, the incumbent president and the current Republican frontrunner are each betting big that the road to the White House runs through Jan. 6. 

'It makes sense on Jan. 6, but...'

This past week has seen President Biden leaning hard into invocations of Jan. 6, with the release of his first campaign ad of 2024 — a minute-long video entitled simply "cause" featuring images from the insurrection juxtaposed with scenes of voting rights protests and patriotic calls for unity. 

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Cause | Biden-Harris 2024 - YouTube

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Published on the president's YouTube channel Thursday, the video comes just one day after the White House announced that Biden had met this week with an unnamed group of "scholars and historians" to confer over "ongoing threats to democracy and democratic institutions both here in America and around the world." Biden is also "expected to say that Trump and far-right extremists are a threat and a danger to the freedoms on which the country was founded" in an upcoming speech on the eve of the insurrection's anniversary, according to ABC News, which noted that the president has been "closely involved" in drafting the remarks after his meeting with the various academics on Wednesday. 

While the basic message that Trump represents a threat to American democracy is "not new for Biden," the fact that this is how the president has chosen to kick off 2024 "reveals his reelection strategy," The Dispatch reported. For as much as Biden's campaign may invoke "other poignant issues," the president still wants to frame the race as "American democracy versus 'MAGA' authoritarianism."

The message and location of the speech, set to be delivered in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, "makes sense on Jan. 6," longtime Democratic strategist James Carville told ABC. "But don't kid yourself. On Jan. 8 and 9, Americans will still be going to the grocery store" and making decisions based on everyday economic concerns. 

Many Republican voters agree, GOP strategist Alice Stewart told the Associated Press. While they may think: "Jan. 6, that wasn't great," that sentiment "doesn't affect [their] bottom line."

'Move on'

Within the GOP, acceptance of, and a desire to move past, the events of Jan. 6 have become more common than ever. Not only has the falsehood that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump become "the dominant thinking among Republicans," according to CNN, but a new Washington Post/University of Maryland poll shows that a quarter of the country believes "it is 'probably' or 'definitely' true that the FBI instigated" the Capitol riot itself — a sentiment fed by Trump's own claims of innocence, and framing of insurrection participants as victims who "should be freed". Trump has "decided to go all in as being the pro-Jan. 6 candidate," counterterrorism expert Tom Joscelyn told National Public Radio

At the same time, the overwhelming majority of Republican poll respondents believe "too much is being made" of the insurrection, and that the country "should simply 'move on'" from Jan. 6, MSNBC reported.