Was JD Vance's Iowa excursion a presidential test balloon?

Photo collage of J. D. Vance and Zach Nunn — Is it politics as usual, or has the 2028 electoral cycle begun already?

(Image credit: Illustration by Julia Wytrazek / Getty Images)

Fresh off a world tour, Vice President JD Vance was in Iowa this week to boost GOP Rep. Zach Nunn in his reelection bid, as Republicans scramble to defend their congressional majorities by November. But no political visit there can escape speculation stemming from Iowa’s role as the nation’s first presidential caucus state. Vance’s Iowa excursion may have been an example of a vice president dutifully doing what the party requires of him. It might also have been a soft launch of a much bigger effort from the veep’s camp.

What did the commentators say?

Vance’s trip to Iowa was “billed as a White House message to American workers” on top of being an “effort to promote Nunn,” NBC News said. But Vance’s appearance, his “first to the state as vice president,” had “added political weight” and an “expectation that the visit would be the first of many for him.” Although most of Vance’s remarks in Iowa “traced back to the midterm elections and, specifically, Nunn’s race,” he also “carefully recognized each of the high-ranking Republicans in the room” in a speech “loaded with personal touches, including biographical details” from his “Hillbilly Elegy” memoir.

Not only do Iowan Republicans see a “high-profile” visit like Vance’s as helping “build momentum” for Republicans ahead of the midterms, Iowans are also “constantly gauging national figures as potential presidential candidates,” said Iowa Public Radio. Iowa Republicans see someone who comes to help in the midterms “as a team player,” State GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann said to the outlet. That, in turn, “helps” if they “choose later to run for president.”

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In a state “more freighted with presidential expectations than any other,” Vance used his time to “woo influential Iowans,” including “Kaufmann, evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats and conservative talk show host Steve Deace,” said The New York Times. “I’ve never supported Trump in a primary,” Deace said to the outlet. Vance, however, is the “leader in the clubhouse for me” in 2028.

Vance’s “association” with Trump’s agenda presents a “high-risk, high-reward proposition” that could “make or break his political future,” Politico said. “That’s the risk of being part of an administration,” Iowa GOP strategist David Kochel, who has advised multiple presidential campaigns in the state, said to the outlet. “This is the Kamala Harris problem.” With Trump not on the ballot this year, Vance “keeping his supporters engaged” in November could be “critical” for holding Nunn’s seat, said Iowa’s KTIV. But Trump himself is “underwater in districts that he won in 2024,” Puck said, including in Nunn’s, where Republicans are “just one point” ahead of Democrats.

During his speech, Vance attempted to “project loyalty” to Trump, despite the administration’s push for a war in Iran that Vance “privately signaled he was not eager to see the United States enter,” The Washington Post said. Vance had also been “slow to return” to Iowa as veep, “even as other ambitious Republicans,” including Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas, “trekked here for widely attended conservative summits and dinners in 2025.”

What next?

Vance is currently the “overwhelming front-runner” for the GOP presidential nomination in 2028, even as he “remains unpopular with the broader electorate,” the Times said. And “unlike other cabinet officials” serving at the pleasure of the president, Vance can campaign for the future “while keeping his day job.”

Still, despite speculation over Vance’s Iowa visit, there was “no special reason the vice president came here this week, as opposed to closer to the general election,” the Post said, citing multiple sources with knowledge of Vance’s schedule. Iowa was “merely next on the White House’s list of swing-state House districts for Vance to visit.” Said one source, simply: “Gotta go to Iowa eventually.”

Rafi Schwartz has worked as a politics writer at The Week since 2022, where he covers elections, Congress and the White House. He was previously a contributing writer with Mic focusing largely on politics, a senior writer with Splinter News, a staff writer for Fusion's news lab, and the managing editor of Heeb Magazine, a Jewish life and culture publication. Rafi's work has appeared in Rolling Stone, GOOD and The Forward, among others.