Scots referendum: a final battle between hope and fear

Politics professor John Curtice charts the changes in public opinion over the campaign’s final weeks

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Just a few short weeks ago, it looked as though it was clear who was going to win the Scottish independence referendum. Although the polls persistently disagreed with each other as to how far it was behind, not a single independently commissioned poll had actually put the Yes side ahead. Some indeed put the pro-independence camp as much as 11 points short of the 51 per cent winning post it needed to reach.

It also looked as though shifting the balance of public opinion was difficult. Although the Yes side certainly managed to close the gap during the winter, its progress – from an average poll rating of 39 per cent (after Don’t Knows were removed) to one of 43 per cent – was stately rather than meteoric.

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