The 50-year battle for Western Sahara

Britain has become the latest country to back a plan to give limited autonomy to the disputed territory of Western Sahara, while keeping it under Moroccan control.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy said the plan, proposed by Morocco, was "the most credible, viable and pragmatic" way to resolve one of Africa's longest-running and most frustrating regional conflicts.

Who controls Western Sahara?

The dispute over Western Sahara – roughly 100,000 square miles of sparsely populated land to the south of Morocco and Algeria, and to the west of Mauritania – has become an "intricate" and "multifaceted political, diplomatic, and military contest", said Modern Diplomacy.

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It's an area "rich in Moroccan culture, Hassani heritage and natural resources", and, following the withdrawal of Spain's colonial forces in 1975, both Morocco and the Algeria-supported, pro-independence Polisario Front claimed it as theirs. Years of low-level fighting ensued until, in 1991, a UN-supervised ceasefire was agreed that left roughly three-quarters of the territory under Moroccan control. The remaining strip is controlled by Polisario, which has declared a "Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic".

For the past 30 years, the UN has been maintaining a peacekeeping mission in the Western Sahara to "monitor the humanitarian and security situation" and ensure compliance with the ceasefire agreement. But "the Polisario Front has not yet adhered to the decisions and recommendations of the UN mission".

What is the Moroccan plan?

In 2007, Morocco submitted its Autonomy Initiative to the UN, proposing that Western Sahara manage its own internal affairs, while Morocco retains control over defence, foreign policy and currency. Though the initiative was warmly received by several African, Arab and European countries, it failed to get formal backing.

Then in 2020, during Donald Trump's first presidential term, the US shifted position and recognised Moroccan sovereignty, in a quid pro quo for Morocco joining the Abraham Accords and normalising relations with Israel. Following the US lead, France declared backing for Morocco's plan last year, ending its "long-standing position of neutrality", said Bloomberg. Spain, Germany, as well as many Gulf States and Egypt have also backed the plan.

Since US recognition of its sovereignty, Morocco has invested heavily in the region, sparking something of a development blitz. After years of conflict and diplomatic stalemate, the area is emerging "as a hotspot for investment, drawing European and American firms interested in fishing, agriculture and infrastructure projects", said The Independent.

"The Western Sahara has gone from a disputed territory that was radioactive to foreign investors to an increasingly normal region that's receiving a growing flow of capital," Riccardo Fabiani, project director for North Africa at the International Crisis Group, told Bloomberg.

Is there an alternative?

Growing international support for Morocco's plan has left Algeria and the Polisario Front "fuming". The group – which some US lawmakers want listed as a terrorist organisation – has vowed to step up resistance and has claimed recent attacks against Moroccan forces near the Algerian border.

Polisario has also "taken its fight to international courts", said The Independent. It argues that Morocco "does not have the right to trade resources belonging to the Sahrawi people, while the conflict remains unresolved".

But alternative solutions seem unlikely. Last year, according to Reuters, the UN envoy for Western Sahara floated the idea of partitioning the territory to "allow for the creation, on the one hand, of an independent state in the southern part and, on the other hand, the integration of the rest of the territory as part of Morocco". Both Morocco and the Polisario Front rejected the proposal out of hand.