The big winner of the GOP speaker mess might be Hakeem Jeffries

Imagine, if you will, an alien — a little green man from Mars, or gelatinous blob from somewhere near proxima centauri, or any other well-worn science fiction trope about life on other worlds — who lands in Washington, D.C., and says it's been sent to Earth to see the American legislative system in action. (Why? Perhaps as punishment for having committed some horrible crime on its home planet.) And imagine, if you will, that this alien is galactically unlucky enough to do so during last week's (still ongoing) scramble to find someone — anyone — who can replace Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) as House speaker. After much deliberation and debate, the decision is made to bring this alien to the House of Representatives, where, flanked by scientists and anthropologists, it watches Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) lose vote after vote after vote by an ever-increasing margin. 

Finally, when the ballots are counted and tallied, this alien — a member of a fairly rational and linear-minded species — turns to its handlers and asks why Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic minority leader from New York, doesn't have the speaker's gavel. After all, the alien figures, Jeffries received the clear majority of the total votes cast, beating Jordan by double digits in ballot after ballot. 

While our hypothetical extraterrestrial visitor clearly has a ways to go before it masters the confounding intricacies of the American legislative process, it has, in its galactic naivete, landed on an interesting observation: For many, Jeffries' has emerged as a fixed point of stability amid the chaos and turbulence of the GOP's scramble to elect a speaker. Though he likely won't become the speaker during this term, he has come to look like a winner nevertheless. 

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'Jeffries got it just right'

When Democrats under Jeffries' leadership refused to step in and save McCarthy's speakership from the ultimately successful push by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) to oust him from the spot, they faced "pundit recriminations" that were "thunderous and damning," The Washington Post's Greg Sargent wrote on Tuesday. But as the speaker drama has gone on, Jeffries' strategy is "plainly working," not just for Democrats but in terms of likely producing a "better result for the country as well." 

Jeffries' self-control has been a "smart strategy," MSNBC's Jen Psaki agreed, noting this past weekend that "if anyone had the right to feel smug this week" it's the minority leader, in part for having "purposefully left a bridge open to the majority of the Republican caucus" while still coming across as the "responsible adult in the room." While the GOP "may not have a plan" by playing the long game, "Leader Jeffries got it just right."

Faced with the challenges of leading his own ideologically diverse caucus, the recent speaker drama has shown that Jeffries has "largely accomplished" one of the main goals of his tenure: "keeping Democrats united on important votes as the Republican caucus fell to pieces," The New York Times' Nicholas Fandos said. 

'Before the political pendulum swings back'

For as much as his strategy has been predicated in no small part on sitting back and letting the GOP spiral on its own, Jeffries and the Democrats have been "politicking hard," Fox News reported, citing the need to maximize the situation "before the political pendulum swings back toward the GOP." In particular, Jeffries' "calls for bipartisanship while spotlighting the chaos infecting the GOP amid the speaker fight will also likely help the House Democrats heading into 2024."

For now, "it’s far easier to remain unified when the primary goal is opposing the majority, rather than coalescing around a set of legislative priorities," The New Republic reported at the onset of the recent speaker battle. To that end, Jeffries "benefits from being minority leader rather than speaker." Still, Jeffries' ability to ossify that sense of unity has been crucial, Rep. Anne Kuster (D-N.H.) explained to the publication. After a meeting with the 100-plus member "New Democrat Coalition" caucus this month, "literally everyone walked in there with a different opinion of why [they opposed McCarthy], but we walked out of there with resolve." Kuster explained. “That's something that Hakeem brings to us, whenever he speaks to our group. He reminds us of our unity of purpose."