What does Trump mean for Canadian-American relations?

The United States and Canada have the longest undefended border in the world. Relations between the two countries are usually placid. A second Donald Trump presidency could change that.

Trump "appears interested in adding a 51st star to the American flag," Alexandra Sharp said at Foreign Policy. The president-elect has veered between threatening massive tariffs on Canadian imports to speculating — some would say trolling — about the possibility of absorbing Canada into the United States. "I think it is a great idea. 51st State!!!" Trump said on Truth Social. "The revolutionary nature of these threats is hard to overstate, even by Trump's own audacious standards," said Foreign Policy columnist Edward Alden.

Trump's provocations have created a "near-existential moment" in Canadian politics, said The New York Times. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was already in "serious trouble" before Trump's election, but now there's a new element of chaos. Chrystia Freeland, Canada's finance minister, resigned in mid-December, suggesting that Trudeau was failing at the task of "pushing back at 'America First' economic nationalism" in the form of tariffs. Trudeau's future is murky. What's clear: Trump "will continue to loom large over Canadian politics," said the Times.

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Trade war would 'make life more expensive'

Trump has focused on America's trade deficit with Canada while threatening tariffs. In one social media post, he complained that "we subsidize Canada to the tune of over $100,000,000 a year." That grievance is "nonsense," Zeeshan Aleem said at MSNBC. There is "nothing innately wrong with having a trade deficit," but Trump tends to see international relations as all winners and losers: "You're either ripping someone off, or you're the one getting ripped off." In fact, the U.S. "benefits economically from what it imports from Canada."

Canadian officials are now preparing export taxes — on commodities like uranium, oil and potash — that would "drive up costs for U.S. consumers, farmers and businesses" as a response to Trump's proposed tariffs, Brian Platt said at Bloomberg. Americans could end up paying at the pump: Canada is the "largest external supplier of oil" to the United States. A trade war could end up being messy for both sides. "All it does is make life more expensive," said Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.

'Like cousins or siblings'

"Trump is going after Canada now — but everyone else is next," Stephen Collinson said at CNN. The incoming president's "vindictive behavior" is focused on America's neighbor at the present, but it's likely to be the dominant mode in his foreign policy. Canadians are "getting an early taste of what Trump's second term will be like," Collinson said. "But everyone else will soon catch up."

Some Canadian officials are trying to downplay the potential conflict. The U.S. and Canada are "like family, like cousins or siblings," Kirsten Hillman, Canada's ambassador to the U.S., said to Politico. She is trying to emphasize what the countries have in common over sources of potential conflict. "There's no country in the world that wants a strong America more than Canada, right?" she said. However, "a strong Canada is good for the United States."