Who are undecided voters, anyway?
They might decide the presidential election


The 2024 presidential election might be decided by the undecided. In an era of hyperpolarization, the idea that there are still "undecided voters" might seem unbelievable. But they exist — and they could choose who wins in November.
"There are different strains of 'undecided,'" Philip Bump said at The Washington Post. Many of those Americans aren't so much divided between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris — instead, they're "undecided" on whether or not to vote. Others have "complex" calculations to make about how the candidates align with their own values. And others simply aren't paying much attention. There have always been Americans who are "loosely attached" to politics, Bump said. "This isn't new."
Campaigns sort undecideds into two groups: "Persuadable" and "irregular." "Persuadable voters get the most attention from the media," Ronald Brownstein said at The Atlantic. But the irregulars — folks who don't always go to the polls — "can loom much larger in the outcome." Why? Because they're much more likely to turn out in a presidential election. "There are more humans who are non-habitual voters than there are voters who swing back and forth," said one Democratic strategist.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Views 'all over the place'
Undecideds are often seen as voters who sit "squarely in the middle of today's polarized politics," Jay Kaspian Kang said at The New Yorker. In reality, their views are "all over the place." The press has hyperfixated on these people, though, because presidential elections now come down to a "small number of voters in swing states." Despite the relentless effort to understand undecideds and what makes them tick, it seems we're no closer to answer. "We know the undecided voter will decide our destiny," Kang said, "but we cannot conjure up their face."
But they will matter. Harris' polling lead is "within the margin of error," said PBS NewsHour. "The band of undecided voters is getting narrower and narrower by the day," said a Republican strategist. Eight in 10 voters say their minds are "completely decided." But a few still want to learn more about Harris, who entered the race at a relatively late stage. "The fact that they're unsure is a better place to be than they're against you," said Faiz Shakir, a Democratic operative.
Shifting with the 'political winds'
"The firm line we've drawn between the 'decided' and the 'undecided' may not exist," Vinay Mehra said at Harvard's Institute for Quantitative Social Science. Most voters are "swaying" in response to the national mood, recent events and other factors. Undecideds are "simply those most visibly affected by this swing." They don't sit in the middle of the political spectrum — instead, they're most likely to move from one side to the other "when the political winds shift." That means the way undecided voters move is "just a reflection of the swings happening across the electorate."
Or perhaps the winds simply blow ill. The existence of undecided voters might be a sign that the existing candidates and parties "don't merit public confidence," Ross Douthat said at The New York Times. If voters are given two bad options, he said, "they will often choose the one you are sure is worse."
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joel Mathis is a writer with 30 years of newspaper and online journalism experience. His work also regularly appears in National Geographic and The Kansas City Star. His awards include best online commentary at the Online News Association and (twice) at the City and Regional Magazine Association.
-
Apple bows to Trump administration pressure over ICE tracking apps
In the Spotlight It’s the latest company to capitulate to Trump’s demands
-
Can TrumpRx really lower drug prices?
Today’s Big Question Pfizer’s deal with Trump sent drugmaker stocks higher
-
‘Every argument has a rational, emotional, and rhetorical component’
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Russia: already at war with Europe?
Talking Point As Kremlin begins ‘cranking up attacks’ on Ukraine’s European allies, questions about future action remain unanswered
-
Trump declares ‘armed conflict’ with drug cartels
speed read This provides a legal justification for recent lethal military strikes on three alleged drug trafficking boats
-
Supreme Court rules for Fed’s Cook in Trump feud
Speed Read Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook can remain in her role following Trump’s attempts to oust her
-
‘This isn’t just semantics’
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Miami Freedom Tower’s MAGA library squeeze
THE EXPLAINER Plans to place Donald Trump’s presidential library next to an iconic symbol of Florida’s Cuban immigrant community has South Florida divided
-
Judge rules Trump illegally targeted Gaza protesters
Speed Read The Trump administration’s push to arrest and deport international students for supporting Palestine is deemed illegal
-
Trump: US cities should be military ‘training grounds’
Speed Read In a hastily assembled summit, Trump said he wants the military to fight the ‘enemy within’ the US
-
YouTube to pay Trump $22M over Jan. 6 expulsion
Speed Read The president accused the company of censorship following the suspension of accounts post-Capitol riot