Vietnam’s ‘balancing act’ with the US, China and Europe

Vietnam has been preparing a “second US Invasion plan” more than 50 years after the end of the Vietnam War, drawn up in the event of an American “war of aggression”, according to an internal military report leaked in a humanitarian report.

“There’s a consensus here across the government and across different ministries,” Ben Swanton, co-director of Project88 and the report’s author, told The Associated Press. “This isn’t just some kind of a fringe element or paranoid element within the party or within the government.”

‘Unease’ towards Washington

Despite America’s “belligerent nature” there is “little risk of a war”, but it is important that Vietnam stays “vigilant to prevent the US and its allies from ‘creating a pretext’ to launch an invasion of our country”, according to the Project88 report. In planning its strategy, the document outlines the possibility that the US could “invade or militarily intervene in Vietnam”, and that the “US may use biochemical and tactical nuclear weapons”.

The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

In addition to “exposing Hanoi’s duality” toward the US, the document “confirms a deep-seated fear” of international intervention to oust the communist regime, said AP. With precedents of the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, or the 1986 Yellow Revolution in the Philippines, the Vietnamese Communist Party fears a similar “colour revolution” and “uprising” against its internally unchallenged leadership.

Intervention in Venezuela has no doubt given Vietnam “fresh justification” for its “unease” towards Washington, said the outlet. The document shows that, at the very least, Hanoi is “deeply suspicious” of the US regime, despite “decades of steadily improving relations”, said The Times. As recently as September 2023, the two countries agreed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, constituting the “highest level” of relations that there “had ever been”. In the last 18 months, however, Vietnam has become wary of America’s foreign diplomacy, and has shown that it has “no interest” in joining an “anti-China alliance” led by Washington.

Vietnam has “mastered the art of managing Donald Trump” since he has been in office, said Le Monde. Permitting a reported $1.5 billion (£1.1 billion) Trump-branded golf project, as well as joining the Board of Peace “without much hesitation”, has shown Vietnam’s willingness to show an “accommodating attitude” to placate the president, while also seeking a “favourable trade agreement ahead of its neighbours”.

Nevertheless, “deep distrust remains”, even if it “coexists with a genuine strategic rapprochement”. Encouraging economic advancements – in the form of manufacturing incentives, “lifting of the US arms embargo in 2016” and the “resumption of security dialogue” – have not been able to paper over the “renewed aggression” shown towards Venezuela and Iran. “Suddenly”, the “potential threats” facing the Vietnamese Communist Party have become “more tangible”.

‘Hedging its bets’

Hanoi is navigating a “global trade war”, said the Financial Times. It is “one of the world’s fastest-growing economies”, and after To Lam was reappointed general secretary in January, it will look to capitalise on its position as a “critical player in global supply chains”. Its visions are certainly “ambitious”. In the short term, leaders have targeted an economic growth of 10%, following 8% growth last year. Eventually, Vietnam aims to become a “developed country by 2045”.

Like the US two years previously, Vietnam has also agreed a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” with the European Union in recent weeks, said DW. Although China, Russia, Japan and Singapore have all “beaten Brussels to the punch”, the two entities have an “increasingly close” relationship.

Closer ties with Europe are part of a “deliberate strategy” to “diversify and balance its diplomatic ties” and “avoid becoming too dependent on any single centre of power”, said the outlet. China will continue to be a “close partner” due to cultural and political ties, the US represents strong export incentives, and Russia is an “essential weapons supplier”. The benefits are mutual, as both sides seek “secure footing amid global trade and security shocks”.

Closer to home, Vietnam has been “hedging its bets”, said AP. The country has to maintain a delicate ‘balancing act’ between the US and China, with the former its largest export market, and the latter its largest two-way trade partner. Hanoi and Beijing have “been at odds” over differing territorial claims within the South China Sea. But even though China’s influence is more immediate geographically, the second US Invasion Plan implies that China is seen as a “regional rival”, compared to the “threat” posed by the US.