What happens if Joe Biden steps down?
If the president decides not to run against Donald Trump, here's what Democrats have to do next


President Joe Biden has been adamant that, despite his widely panned performance in the first presidential debate against Donald Trump, he will nevertheless continue running for a second term in office. Defying a growing chorus of Democratic figures demanding he step aside for the good of the country, "the bottom line here is that we're not going anywhere," said Biden in an interview with MSNBC's "Morning Joe."
Biden's refusal to entertain leaving the race has done nothing to tamp down concerns that, at 81, he is simply not the politician he was when he defeated Trump four years ago. Betting markets have already begun circling around Vice President Kamala Harris as a replacement candidate. At the same time, major campaign donors have started "wielding their fortunes as both carrot and stick" to convince Biden to stand aside," The New York Times said. No matter how much the president and his team have worked to move past worries around his age and mental acuity, it's clear that a sizable portion of Biden's base remains deeply unconvinced.
There has been ample speculation as to who might replace Biden on the presidential ticket should he eschew his party's nomination, but the truth is that there are multiple steps to consider before any successor is chosen.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
What did the commentators say?
Currently, Biden has nearly 4,000 Democratic primary delegates — almost twice as many as necessary to lock in his party's nomination. If he voluntarily drops out of the race before the Democratic National Convention later this summer, those delegates "would be free to support another candidate of their choice" at the convention, USA Today said. Not only would this be the "most straightforward scenario," it would also most closely resemble the historical precedent set by past conventions when candidates would "go from one state delegation to another to make their case." Dropping out before the convention would be "legally easy but politically difficult," said CBS News. Dropping pre-convention also means Biden would "likely have significant influence" in helping coalesce support around his preferred successor — likely Harris — within the party's base.
If Biden doesn't step down, "there is currently not enough opposition within his own party to remove him from the ticket," said University of Portsmouth teaching fellow and election researcher Dafydd Townley. The "mechanics" of forcing a candidate to step down against their will would be "chaotic at best, if it is even possible," agreed ABC Action News. Nearly every Democratic delegate is currently pledged to Biden, and while party rules allow for a "conscience clause" that lets them break that pledge it is "rarely, if ever, exercised," The New York Times said.
If Biden were to exit the race after accepting the party's nomination during the convention, things get slightly more complicated and considerably more straightforward at the same time. While the process differs between Democrats and Republicans, should Biden drop out post-nomination, the Democratic National Committee is "empowered to fill a vacancy on the national ticket," — thereby avoiding a messy convention-floor fight — but only "after the party chair consults with Democratic governors and congressional leadership," CNN said.
What next?
Biden himself has publicly precluded any chance that he will drop out pre-DNC and even dared party figures and potential challengers in an interview with MSNBC this week to "run against me. Go ahead. Announce for president. Challenge me at the convention."
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
President Biden's message to Democrats calling for him to drop out of the 2024 presidential race:“Run against me. Go ahead — Challenge me at the convention." https://t.co/KXG6iO7Jv8 pic.twitter.com/ynuBBwyqmjJuly 8, 2024
In fact, by the time Democrats gather in Chicago for the DNC, Biden may already have been officially nominated by the party to "meet a ballot certification deadline in Ohio on that date," CBS News said. Because of that, "I don't know what that looks like in the event that there's going to be a contested convention," University of Notre Dame Political Science Professor Derek Muller said to the network.
For those looking to history for some analogous precedent, the last time an incumbent dropped out of a race mid-campaign was in 1968, when Lyndon Johnson abandoned his reelection bid ahead of that year's chaotic DNC in, coincidentally, Chicago. As the "only time a major party had to replace its candidate in mid-cycle," Politico said, the "result was disastrous."
Rafi Schwartz has worked as a politics writer at The Week since 2022, where he covers elections, Congress and the White House. He was previously a contributing writer with Mic focusing largely on politics, a senior writer with Splinter News, a staff writer for Fusion's news lab, and the managing editor of Heeb Magazine, a Jewish life and culture publication. Rafi's work has appeared in Rolling Stone, GOOD and The Forward, among others.
-
October 13 editorial cartoons
Cartoons Monday's political cartoons include Donald Trump's consolation prize, government workers during shutdown, and more
-
Can Gaza momentum help end the war in Ukraine?
Today's Big Question Zelenskyy’s request for long-range Tomahawk missiles hints at ‘warming relations’ between Ukraine and US
-
The Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners being released
The Explainer Triumphant Donald Trump addresses the Israeli parliament as families on both sides of the Gaza war reunite with their loved ones
-
Could Democrats lose the New Jersey governor’s race?
Today’s Big Question Democrat Mikie Sherrill stumbles against Republican Jack Ciattarelli
-
Trump’s deportations are changing how we think about food
IN THE SPOTLIGHT The Department of Labor’s admission that immigration raids have affected America’s food supplies reopens a longstanding debate
-
Judge blocks Trump’s Guard deployment in Chicago
Speed Read The president is temporarily blocked from federalizing the Illinois National Guard or deploying any Guard units in the state
-
Gaza peace deal: why did Trump succeed where Biden failed?
Today's Big Question As the first stage of a ceasefire begins, Trump’s unique ‘just-get-it-done’ attitude may have proven pivotal to negotiations
-
Could air traffic controllers help end the government shutdown?
Today’s Big Question The controllers were crucial in ending the last shutdown in 2019
-
The party bringing Trump-style populism to Japan
Under The Radar Far-right party is ‘shattering’ the belief that Japan is ‘immune’ to populism’
-
Can Trump bully Netanyahu into Gaza peace?
Today's Big Question The Israeli leader was ‘strong-armed’ into new peace deal
-
Court allows Trump’s Texas troops to head to Chicago
Speed Read Trump is ‘using our service members as pawns in his illegal effort to militarize our nation’s cities,’ said Gov. J.B. Pritzker