Most Californians are against recalling Gov. Gavin Newsom — but 1 number should trouble him


There's good news and bad news for California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) when it comes to his September recall election.
In May, the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) found that 54 percent of likely voters approved of Newsom's performance, and 57 percent opposed his recall. However, those who want Newsom out of office are 15 percentage points likelier to be following the recall closely — suggesting they are the most energized and eager to hit the polls.
In his Thursday New York Times column, Ezra Klein calls the recall "a farce," as it means "California could see a popular governor ousted not because a majority think he's failed but because they tuned out an unusual mid-cycle referendum they didn't ask for and weren't paying attention to." PPIC's Mark Baldassare agreed with Klein, telling him "it's possible you have an outcome where an electorate that's small and not representative of the public" ousts Newsom.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
To trigger a recall election in California, petitioners must collect a number of valid signatures equivalent to 12 percent of the votes cast in the previous election. Over the last 108 years, only two of the 55 gubernatorial recall attempts have made it to the ballot — Democrat Gray Davis in 2003 and Newsom in 2021. Klein says it makes sense that those two recalls happened within the last 20 years, as recalling politicians is now an actual business in California — there are professional consultants and signature-gatherers at the ready across the state.
Recalls also bring out a motley crew of candidates hoping to replace the governor — the late actor Gary Coleman, comedian Leo Gallagher, publisher Arianna Huffington, adult film actress Mary Carey, and the eventual winner, action star Arnold Schwarzenegger, were all in the running in 2003. This time around, the biggest names are reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner and John Cox, a wealthy businessman who was the 2018 Republican nominee for governor; he lost to Newsom by 23.8 points.
When Newsom's political opponents collected the signatures to trigger this recall election, the state was under lockdown orders to curb the spread of COVID-19. Now, California is emerging from the pandemic with an economy that is soaring and a budget surplus of at least $76 billion. Newsom will have to wait until September to see if this turnaround, and his supporters, are enough to keep him in Sacramento.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Catherine Garcia has worked as a senior writer at The Week since 2014. Her writing and reporting have appeared in Entertainment Weekly, The New York Times, Wirecutter, NBC News and "The Book of Jezebel," among others. She's a graduate of the University of Redlands and the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism.
-
Groypers: the alt-right group pulled into the foreground
The Explainer The network is led by alt-right activist Nick Fuentes
-
10 concert tours to see this upcoming fall
The Week Recommends Concert tour season isn't over. Check out these headliners.
-
How to put student loan payments on pause
The Explainer If you are starting to worry about missing payments, deferment and forbearance can help
-
Brazil’s Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years for coup attempt
Speed Read Bolsonaro was convicted of attempting to stay in power following his 2022 election loss
-
House posts lewd Epstein note attributed to Trump
Speed Read The estate of Jeffrey Epstein turned over the infamous 2003 birthday note from President Donald Trump
-
Supreme Court allows 'roving' race-tied ICE raids
Speed Read The court paused a federal judge's order barring agents from detaining suspected undocumented immigrants in LA based on race
-
Voting: Trump's ominous war on mail ballots
Feature Donald Trump wants to sign an executive order banning mail-in ballots for the 2026 midterms
-
South Korea to fetch workers detained in Georgia raid
Speed Read More than 300 South Korean workers detained in an immigration raid at a Hyundai plant will be released
-
DC sues Trump to end Guard 'occupation'
Speed Read D.C. Attorney General Brian Schwalb argues that the unsolicited military presence violates the law
-
RFK Jr. faces bipartisan heat in Senate hearing
Speed Read The health secretary defended his leadership amid CDC turmoil and deflected questions about the restricted availability of vaccines
-
White House defends boat strike as legal doubts mount
Speed Read Experts say there was no legal justification for killing 11 alleged drug-traffickers