Nate Silver has released his final predictions for tonight's midterm elections, and he estimates Republicans have a 76 percent chance of winning the Senate.
Silver notes, however, that the race may not be "called" for Republicans on Tuesday — "the outcome of the Senate may not be determined until days or weeks from now," thanks to runoffs and other factors. He estimates, though, that Republicans will be in control of the Senate when it convenes in January.
For Democrats to keep control of the Senate, meanwhile, Democratic candidates would need to win two or three key races "where they are underdogs," Silver notes. Attention is on Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, where neither party has established a 95 percent chance of winning.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
-
Should TV adverts reflect the nation?Talking Point Reform MP Sarah Pochin’s controversial comments on black and Asian actors in adverts expose a real divide on race and representation
-
Crossword: November 1, 2025The Week's daily crossword puzzle
-
Sudoku medium: November 1, 2025The Week's daily medium sudoku puzzle
-
Senate votes to kill Trump’s Brazil tariffSpeed Read Five Senate Republicans joined the Democrats in rebuking Trump’s import tax
-
Border Patrol gets scrutiny in court, gains power in ICESpeed Read Half of the new ICE directors are reportedly from DHS’s more aggressive Customs and Border Protection branch
-
Shutdown stalemate nears key pain pointsSpeed Read A federal employee union called for the Democrats to to stand down four weeks into the government standoff
-
Trump vows new tariffs on Canada over Reagan adspeed read The ad that offended the president has Ronald Reagan explaining why import taxes hurt the economy
-
NY attorney general asks public for ICE raid footageSpeed Read Rep. Dan Goldman claims ICE wrongly detained four US citizens in the Canal Street raid and held them for a whole day without charges
-
Trump’s huge ballroom to replace razed East WingSpeed Read The White House’s east wing is being torn down amid ballroom construction
-
Trump expands boat strikes to Pacific, killing 5 moreSpeed Read The US military destroyed two more alleged drug smuggling boats in international waters
-
Trump demands millions from his administrationSpeed Read The president has requested $230 million in compensation from the Justice Department for previous federal investigations
