Earlier this month, two researchers at University College, London, published some surprising findings in the journal Cognition. The gambling phenomenon known as the "hot hand" — the idea that if you are on a winning streak you'll continue to win — is real. And not only is it real, but your chances of winning appear to rise significantly after each winning hand.
Juemin Xu and Nigel Harvey reached their conclusion by studying 565,915 online sports bets made by 776 gamblers in 2010. Overall, the gamblers won 40 percent of the time (the house always wins, eventually). But if one of the gamblers won, his odds of winning the next hand rose to 49 percent, then 57 percent in hand three, 67 percent in hand four, 72 percent on the fifth wager, and an insane 75 percent on the sixth consecutive winning hand. This is what that looks like in graph form, via Xu and Harvey's paper:
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
-
Why does the U.S. need China's rare earth metals?Today's Big Question Beijing has a 'near monopoly' on tech's raw materials
-
When did divorce begin?The Explaine Couples have always split up, but the institution has undergone major changes over the years
-
What are your retirement savings account options?The explainer The two main types of accounts are 401(k) plans and individual retirement accounts (IRAs)
-
Scientists find hint of alien life on distant worldSpeed Read NASA's James Webb Space Telescope has detected a possible signature of life on planet K2-18b
-
Katy Perry, Gayle King visit space on Bezos rocketSpeed Read Six well-known women went into lower orbit for 11 minutes
-
Scientists map miles of wiring in mouse brainSpeed Read Researchers have created the 'largest and most detailed wiring diagram of a mammalian brain to date,' said Nature
-
Scientists genetically revive extinct 'dire wolves'Speed Read A 'de-extinction' company has revived the species made popular by HBO's 'Game of Thrones'
-
Dark energy may not doom the universe, data suggestsSpeed Read The dark energy pushing the universe apart appears to be weakening
-
Pharaoh's tomb discovered for first time in 100 yearsSpeed Read This is the first burial chamber of a pharaoh unearthed since Tutankhamun in 1922
-
Scientists report optimal method to boil an eggSpeed Read It takes two temperatures of water to achieve and no fancy gadgets
-
Europe records big leap in renewable energySpeed Read Solar power overtook coal for the first time
