Nate Silver thinks Bernie Sanders could beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire


FiveThirtyEight's editor-in-chief (and America's most successful political prognosticator) writes today that the socialist senator from Vermont has a legitimate chance to topple Hillary Clinton in the first two Democratic presidential contests — and "then lose everywhere else."
Sanders could win Iowa. He's up to 30 percent of the vote there, according to Huffington Post Pollster's estimate. What's more, Sanders could also win New Hampshire, where he's at 32 percent of the vote. [FiveThirtyEight]
Silver says that among the best explanations for the Sanders surge in these early-voting states is the fact that "Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa and Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire are really liberal and really white, and that's the core of Sanders' support."
Put another way, Iowa and New Hampshire aren't representative of the more diverse electorates that Democrats will turn out elsewhere. It just so happens that the idiosyncrasies of the first two states match Sanders' strengths and Clinton's relative weaknesses. [FiveThirtyEight]
Before you write off a double Sanders victory as unlikely, remember that in the 2008 general election, Silver called 49 out of 50 states correctly, and in 2012, he nailed all 50.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Ben Frumin is the former editor-in-chief of TheWeek.com.
-
The sneaky rise of whooping cough
Under the Radar The measles outbreak isn't the only one to worry about
By Theara Coleman, The Week US
-
7 nightlife destinations that are positively electric
The Week Recommends Accra, Seoul, Berlin: These are a few of the cities that come alive after dark
By Catherine Garcia, The Week US
-
Crossword: April 15, 2025
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff
-
Trump says electronics tariff break won't last
Speed Read The tariff exemptions on smartphones, laptops and other electronic devices are temporary, the administration says
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
Man charged in arson attack on Pennsylvania's Shapiro
Speed Read Governor Josh Shapiro and his family were sleeping when someone set fire to his Harrisburg mansion
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
White House pushes for oversight of Columbia University
Speed Read The Trump administration is considering placing the school under a consent decree
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
Supreme Court backs wrongly deported migrant
Speed Read The Trump administration must 'facilitate' the return of wrongfully deported migrant Kilmar Ábrego García from El Salvador, Supreme Court says
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
Two judges bar war-powers deportations
Speed Read The Trump administration was blocked from using the Alien Enemies Act to deport more alleged Venezuelan gang members
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
Trump pauses some tariffs but ramps up China tax
Speed Read The president suspended most 'reciprocal' tariffs for 90 days and raised his tariffs for China to 125%
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US
-
Ukraine nabs first Chinese troops in Russia war
Speed Read Ukraine claims to have f two Chinese men fighting for Russia
By Peter Weber, The Week US
-
IRS chief resigning after ICE deal on taxpayer data
Speed Read Several IRS officials are stepping down after the tax agency is forced to share protected taxpayer records to further Trump's deportation drive
By Peter Weber, The Week US